Abu Dhabi Grand Prix betting: Vettel can put down a marker for 2016

Ralph Ellis
26 November 2015

Coming to get you - the Ferraris of Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen

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Formula One reaches the end of its season with first and second place already wrapped up. Ralph Ellis thinks it might not be so simple for Mercedes next time round...

"In Brazil Sebastian Vettel was closer to Hamilton at the chequered flag than the world champion was to his team mate Nico Rosberg. “That shows our real standing now,” was his claim afterwards."

When Lewis Hamilton ended his lifelong racing relationship with McLaren to sign for Mercedes he was met with a storm of derision.

The charge at a time when the German owned team didn't have any sort of competitive car was that he had gone for the cash - that he'd sold out his chances of adding to the one world title he already possessed. How wrong could that be?

I said at the time that I couldn't believe somebody as competitive as Lewis was moving only for the money. He had to have been given some assurances about the quality of car that was waiting for him a bit further down the timeline - and sure enough his one world triumph has now become three.

It's a story worth remembering as this Formula One season draws to a close and we start to think about what 2016 has in store. Hamilton, having won two titles in a row, is already odds on at just 1.715/7 to make it a hat-trick. I think I'd shy away from that because even the Mercedes team admit that Ferrari are going to be tougher competition.

In Brazil Sebastian Vettel was closer to Hamilton at the chequered flag than the world champion was to his team mate Nico Rosberg. "That shows our real standing now," was his claim afterwards. "The motoristi in Maranello have done a miracle this year."

The improvement for the 2016 car will continue, because just as Hamilton's true motives emerged as being a hunt for trophies rather than to boost an already burgeoning bank balance, so that must also be why Vettel, who is 5.79/2 to be 2016 champion, went to Ferrari.

Already a multiple millionaire as a four-times champion at Red Bull, his first question when he sat down with Team Principle Maurizio Arrivabene couldn't possibly have been about the pay cheque, it could only have been about the wheels that were under development.

And if the first year of his three-year contract has been one of playing catch up - much like Hamilton's opening season with Mercedes - you have to think he's expecting the next campaign to be very different.

Hamilton might rightly be world champion this season. He's driven the fastest car brilliantly with ten Grand Prix victories. But there's an argument that Vettel's achievement in nursing the ever improving Ferrari into third place, and winning three races along the way, has been an even better piece of driving.

Vettel is 11.521/2 to wrap up the season by winning this weekend's Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, and while that might be too big a punt you'd feel pretty safe supporting him at anything up to even money in the winner without Hamilton or Rosberg market.

Formula One needs a big rivalry to breathe more life into the sport next season, and not just Hamilton against Rosberg. While a duel between team mates is all very well, there is always the suspicion the team can manipulate one in favour of the other. What we really want to see is Vettel back in the hunt and putting pressure on Hamilton - and there are good signs we may get our wish.

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