World Snooker Championship 2026: 10-year trends point to...

This annual trends preview has had a rollercoaster ride in the last four years.

In 2022, the top two in my points rankings - Judd Trump and Ronnie O'Sullivan - contested the final.

In 2023, Luca Brecel busted every trend going and was nowhere in my rankings.

In 2024, this column delivered a 28/129.00 winner after it identified Kyren Wilson as the highest points scorer in the top half of the draw and recommended a bet on the Englishman.

And in 2025, the trends took another kick in the face due to a freakish set of circumstances that are unlikely to ever be repeated.

Despite clearly being one of the best players in the world, winner Zhao Xintong was classed as an unseeded amateur after serving a 20-month ban so the trends were never going to pick him up. 

Hopefully, the trends can do their stuff again this year. Let's begin with an explanation.

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The Points System

As usual. I'm only looking at the top 16 seeds. Shaun Murphy in 2005 and Terry Griffiths in 1979 bucked that trend and so did Zhao 12 months ago even though he would clearly have been seeded in normal circumstances. Bottom line: a non-seed lifting the trophy would come as a huge surprise.

Let's break off then and list our first category...

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Age

I'm awarding points based on how often each age group won across the last 10 editions. So, as four 30-somethings triumphed in the study period, anyone in their 30s this year is awarded 4pts. Zhao became the third 20-something winner in the last decade when taking the title last year so that age group gets 3pts. Here's the allocation.

In their 20s: 3pts
In their 30: 4pts
In their 40s: 3pts
In their 50s: 0pts

The Class of 92 - Ronnie O'Sullivan, John Higgins and Mark Williams - are now in their 50s. None have won since reaching that landmark although Williams was 50 when reaching last year's final.

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Seeding

Nine of  the last 10 champions were ranked in the top 16. But, digging deeper, the winner is more likely to come from the top eight rather than 9th to 16th - which makes sense of course.

In seven of the last 10 years, a top eight seed has won so those in that category get 7pts. Non-seeds now get a point thanks to Zhao.

Players seeded 1-8: 7pts
Players seeded 9-16: 2pts
Non-seeds: 1pt

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Crucible Appearances

Experience of the Crucible is usual absolutely imperative. Eight of the last 10 winners had played there at least eight times (Brecel and Zhao the exceptions).

The biggest concentration is 5-12 appearances inclusive, with half the last 10 winners in that bracket.

Between 5 and 12 past appearances inc: 5pts
Made 13 or more appearances: 4pts
Made fewer than 5 appearances: 1pt

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Best World Championship Result

A simple one now. The trends show that the most likely winner at the Crucible is someone who has already won there before. That applies to six of the last 10.

Two others had reached the final while those with a previous best of last eight or last four don't have a win in the last 10 years. Brecel and Zhao had never gone beyond round two so perhaps you could say that once they got motoring there was no scar tissue from previous defeats in quarters or semis.

Past winner: 6pts
Beaten finalist: 2pts
Best of R1 or R2: 2pts
Best of quarters or semis: 0pts

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Last Year

This is a slightly unexpected trend but perhaps has some logic in terms of hunger. It seems that those who fell below expectations one year come back strongly 12 months later. The exact stat is that eight of the last 10 winners hadn't made the one table set-up (i.e. reached the semis) the year before.

It applied to Kyren Wilson in 2024. Although he'd enjoyed an impressive run of results in Sheffield, in 2023 he'd gone out in round two. Determined to make his mark a year later, he went all the way and won it.

Won last year: 1pt
Reached semis/final last year: 1pt
Didn't reach semis last year: 8pts

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Current Form

We need to reflect latest well-being so here's a stat to measure form coming in to Sheffield and it's a strong one: 8 of the last 10 Crucible winners had made at least a semi-final in one of their previous three starts on tour.

In 2024, Kyren Wilson had made the last four of the German Masters three starts earlier so ticked this box.

Made at least a semi-final in one of previous three starts: 8pts
Not reached a semi in one of previous three starts: 2pts

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World Ranking Win

How important is it for a prospective world champion to have shown their mettle by winning a ranking event earlier that season?

Brecel actually added to this trend in 2023 but Wilson didn't. It's close but, as you'd expect, a ranking win that season is beneficial. 

Won a ranking title this season: 6pts
Not won a ranking title this season: 4pts

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Fatigue

A long, gruelling season can be detrimental in any sport and it certainly applies in snooker too. Judd Trump, due to getting to the business end of tournaments so often, had played 104 matches before the 2021 World Championship.

Perhaps a victim of his own success, he was in the 'red zone' when arriving at the Crucible and fatigue could have been a contributing factor in his 13-11 loss to Shaun Murphy in the quarters. He'd only played 83 matches when winning in 2019 and 68 when reaching the 2022 final.

The stat that taps into workload is that 6 of the last 10 Crucible winners had played between 60 and 100 matches that season. It's not ideal to be a little undercooked either and the sweetspot is between 60 and 100.

Played between 60 and 100 matches this season: 6pts
Played 40-59 matches this season: 3pts
Played under 40 matches this season: 1pt
Played over 100 matches this season: 0pts

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Crucible expectations

Finally, I want a stat that rewards players who always seem to overperform at the Crucible but deducts points from those who perennialy fall short of expectations.

The classic case is Neil Robertson, who despite being one of the perennial favourites hasn't made it to the semi-finals since 2014.

Therefore, to get a guide that translates into points, I've looked at how each player performed in relation to their seeding.

Put crudely, the No.1 seed is expected to win, the No.2 seed to lose in the final, seeds 3 and 4 to lose in the semis, seeds 5-8 to go out in the quarters and seeds 9-16 to perish in round two. So, if a sixth seed made the last four, he'd be overperforming. Conversely, if a third seed lost in the last eight, he'd be underperforming.

Using five years of evidence I've scored each player on whether they overperformed, underperformed or met expectations (e.g. a seventh seed reaching the quarter-finals but then being beaten).

Robertson gets hammered here as he's underperformed in each of his last five Crucible visits so racks up -10 (5 x -2). Judd Trump, Barry Hawkins and Mark Allen also rack up plenty of minus points for not living up to their seedings.

By contrast, Si Jiahui gets +6 after overperforming in each of the last three years. This category causes quite a swing in the final results but that's fine. The Crucible is a unique stage.

Underperforming: -2pts per year
Overperforming: +2 points each year
Meeting expectations: 0pts

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The final scores

Right, let's get to the exciting bit!!

The final scores are in and, drumroll, these are the leading tallies:

42 John Higgins
38 Zhao Xintong, Mark Selby, Shaun Murphy
37 Kyren Wilson
36 Judd Trump, Wu Yize
35 Neil Robertson
33 Xiao Gudong
31 Mark Williams
30 Barry Hawkins
29 Si Jiahui
28 Chris Wakelin 
24 Mark Allen, Ronnie O'Sullivan
21 Ding Junhui

Despite having turned 50, four-time winner John Higgins comes out top!

That's due to his high seeding (fifth), past wins, current form and continuing ability to overperform in this venue.

The Scot reached the semis as sixth seed in 2022 and then made the quarters when seeded 10th and 13th respectively the next two years. 

He again made the last eight in 2025 but hopefully not reaching the semis again 12 months ago will keep him hungry.

If the draw goes to plan, Higgins would play a hard-to-assess Ronnie in the last 16, perennial underperformer Robertson in the quarters and Zhao Xintong in the semis.

Zhao looks hard to beat on current form but, of course, the left-hander has the biggest trend of all against him - The Crucible Curse! That says no first-time winner has ever made a successful defence.

Williams made the final as a 50-year-old last year so let's back Higgins at 20s (1/2 , 2 Places). He's 32.031/1 on the Betfair Exchange.

As with last year, I'll back a player from each half. 

The top points scorer in the bottom half is Mark Selby and I'll play him 'win only' on the exchange at 11.010/1.

The four-time world champ showed his class in the big events again by landing the UK Championship in York in November. Making the quarters in the Players Championship looks a nice warm-up.

Note that a non-seed actually comes out joint-fifth in the trends. That would be Jack Lisowski although, at the time of writing, we don't know if he'll even be playing at the Crucible this year. If he qualifies, he could go well.

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