NFL / Andy Richmond / 22 November 2008 / Leave a comment

Andy Richmond looks at three games where defeat could be fatal...

Every week in the NFL has its own personality and story to tell and the narrative this week is: the rematch. Some of the heavyweights - the Chargers in particular - are on the edge of not making the post-season and the ultimate comeback kings, the Dolphins, in action.

New England at Miami

The Patriots are out for revenge here against a Dolphins team which really have the M word with them at the moment - yep, Mr Momentum is back with the team from the Sunshine State - they've won four on the bounce and look to sweep the series against the Patriots. Miami pulled off one of the shocks of the season when they showed up with the quirky "Wildcat" offence in Week 3 and hammered the Pats 38-13 in what was the second start for New England's emerging QB Matt Cassell as a pro. He's got better and better by week and is now playing with Brady-esque poise.

He'll need to have his wits about him on Sunday as the Dolphins bring an extensive blitz package, led by NFL sack leader Joey Porter. Cassell comes here having had his best game as a pro, 400 yards, a trio of touchdowns and in the likely pass-friendly weather of South Florida he could find the porous Dolphins secondary a soft target, especially if he can find WR Randy Moss on a regular basis. He'll also have his three-pronged rushing attack to take the pressure off and keep the Dolphins "D" honest.

The surprise element of the "Wildcat" offence - which positions one of the running backs lining up in the QB role behind the centre, with the QB split out like a wide receiver - has long gone and Bill Belichick will be well prepared this time round. Despite all the problems he's had this year, the Patriots will go 7-4 if they win and are capable of making post-season once again.

This is a tough game for both sides and whichever one of these comes out of this with an L in the result column will have suffered a significant wound. The Pats would have lost two games in a row since weeks 9 and 10 in 2006 and they would be seriously hampered in divisional tie-breakers with the Jets and Dolphins. The Dolphins would suffer an enormous dent in confidence with only two home games to come and two further divisional re-matches on their schedule.

So, for me, this is too close to call either way - I'll hope that we see an offensive game in the warm of the Florida sunshine.

Recommendation: Back over 41.5 match points at [1.94].


Carolina at Atlanta

Another rematch - and Atlanta are right up there with the Dolphins when we talk about teams bouncing back this year. It looks as though the Falcons may fall a little short of post-season play but Coach Mike Smith has not only done an effective job at hiding the team's weaknesses, he has also maximised their strengths. One of those has been the form of rookie QB Matt Ryan though, one of his few bad games this season came against this dominating Carolina defence.

Defensively, the Falcons need to take away the Panthers running game and force QB Jake Delhomme make plays rather than be gifted them - he's only completed 17-of-46 passes in the last two weeks. This young Falcons side need to play defence for the full 60 minutes otherwise the Panthers will strike and a win here will almost guarantee them a place at the post-season party.

Steady and consistent, that's what Carolina are, there's no razzle dazzle here, but it should be enough to get the job done in Atlanta.

Recommendation: Back Carolina Panthers (+1.5) at [2.0].


Indianapolis at San Diego

Well, we've spoken about re-matches, but here come the heavyweights. These two teams were fully expected to make the post-season or possibly be the AFC Superbowl representative. But for San Diego to get there, the Chargers must make this run of three straight home games count - big style - starting Sunday.

Inconsistent is the kind word for the Chargers season, and the sum of all the parts is not adding up at the moment, something is always broken each week.

Only four of the 16 teams that hit the road this weekend have a winning record and the Colts are one of those. Unless the Titans blow up, the divisional title has long gone, so indianapolis are in the unfamiliar position of being in the wild-card scrap. They do however have a lot in their favour this week despite making the trip West.

The Colts are on the back of a three game winning streak, QB Peyton Manning faces the worst pass defence in the NFL. Happily he is healthy again, has his line protection back and sees Shawne Merriman absent for the Chargers. The home team will lack the ability to generate much pass rushing pressure.

Finally, if the Colts get past this game with a victory they are into the very soft part of their schedule, with the likes of Cincinnati and Detroit to come.

I make this game much closer than the odds suggest as the Colts appear to have adopted their business-as-usual 'game face' against a misfiring Chargers outfit.

Recommendation: Bold Call Back Indianapolis Colts at 2.28 or take some insurance and back the Colts (+2.5) at [2.06].