NFL Betting, Week 13: Packers and Cowboys square up for monumental clash

NFL / Andy Richmond / 28 November 2007 / Leave a Comment

This is so big we might as well call it Super Bowl 41¾, says Andy Richmond

If the Indianapolis-New England game earlier this month was hyped as Super Bowl 41½, this upcoming game might as well get billed as Super Bowl 41¾. It has all the elements: Famous franchises, marquee quarterbacks and top seeding in the NFC on the line.

The Packers and Cowboys, both 10-1, square off on Thursday night in Dallas in a game that should equal, if not surpass, the attention given the Week 9 match up between the still-undefeated Patriots and the then-undefeated Colts. There's a lot at stake - it's not automatic that the winner will gain home field advantage throughout NFC play offs although the loser will essentially be two games behind (the winner will own the head-to head tiebreaker) with just four games to play.

If success was expected for the Cowboys this term, then the opposite was the case for Green Bay. This was to be a season of consolidation and progress not 10-1 and a shot at the NFC Championship. But with certain Hall Of Famer, Brett Favre, directing his youthful band of receivers, the Pack have played an exciting, exuberant brand of football reminiscent of the late 90s when Favre was in his pomp. In short, the Packers are the feel-good story of 2007.

But Thursday night's visit to Texas Stadium is the toughest test Green Bay have faced all year in a stadium where Favre is 0-8 and the crowd will be the Cowboys' extra man. It also brings Favre and the Packers face-to-face with one of the players of the season in Cowboys QB Tony Romo who has formed a lethal partnership with former Eagles enigma Terrell Owens. TO has reinvented himself as a team-orientated player with his mind on football rather than other issues which has made an enormous difference.

The Cowboys have only lost to the Patriots this year, no disgrace in that, but it's the way that the Patriots play that should give the Packers some hope - spreading out the defence and attacking the secondary were key to that win and that's what the Packers will attempt to do, often playing with an empty backfield with multiple receivers and tight ends. There is no doubt this year that the Packers have been playing some exciting football, Favre has his go to guy Donald Driver (63 receptions for 832 yards) and deep threat rookie Greg Jennings, who averages 16.0 yards per catch this season with nine touchdowns. Those two, along with the rest of the receiving corps, can exploit a Cowboys secondary which has proved a weak point this year. Safety Roy Williams can expect to be targeted as Favre will not only look for the deep pass but also to unpick the Cowboys' secondary underneath with Tight End Donald Lee. With a league leading 14 plays over 40 yards the Cowboys' secondary is going to need to step up here.

Talking of offences and secondarys, the battle going the other way will be just as tough and aggressive as Romo, a QB out of the Favre mould, comes up against an aggressive and physical unit led by all-pro corners Al Harris and Charles Woodson, although Woodson is questionable having received a toe injury on a punt return against the Lions last week. This pair love to play tight man-to-man coverage and with TO in the form of his life that will be a tough match up as Romo seeks out his favourite receiver.

To be successful the Packers 'D' must not give Romo time or space and will look to attack at every opportunity creating pressure on the young QB and at the very least seeking to contain him. With TO sure to receive "special" treatment, Romo will be looking for TE Jason Witten to provide an outlet. Green Bay have struggled defensively against good TEs this year.

These are two 'big play' offences and that's what I expect to see on Thursday night - well early Friday morning for us in the UK - both of these offences are going to place the opposition under enormous pressure and conservative isn't a word in either coach's vocabulary.

Well there are the match-ups, so now it's decision time. As a Packers fan it's a case for me of heart (Packers) or head (Cowboys) - on this occasion I'll let the heart rule the head (well the ED said I couldn't sit on the fence) and take the Pack to continue surprising me at around 2.08 with a 6.5 point start, but it would be a small play given my affiliation to the Packers. For me there is more mileage in looking at the player markets and supporting the superb Donald Driver to receive over 75.5 yards passing but also given the Packers' problems with quality TEs this season looking to get with Jason Whitten to score a TD at around 1.75 - God it hurt to write that! I couldn't put anyone off taking a look at the overs on the points front either as this could be a shoot out.

Whatever happens in this game I have a feeling it will be a case of "I'll be back" for both of these come NFC Championship game time.