NFL Betting Preview: Dallas at Green Bay

NFL / Andy Richmond / 13 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Recommendation: 1pt Green Bay +3.5 at 1.77 or better

The Green Bay Packers are in the last chance saloon, says Andy Richmond as he selects the best bets.

Suddenly Dallas is on top of the NFC East, and Green Bay are struggling to stay on the outside of the play-off picture - a few weeks is a long time in the NFL. The Cowboys looked good last Sunday night against the Eagles; the Packers looked awful against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But it's rarely as simple as that and the Cowboys make their second consecutive road trip to Lambeau field and the Packers have to win this to have any chance of an unlikely divisional title.

Most of the problems for Green Bay this year have been in keeping QB Aaron Rodgers upright and he and the offensive line will face a similar problem here with Aaron Rodgers having already been sacked 37 times. At this rate, Rodgers will threaten David Carr's record for most times sacked in a season (76). DeMarcus Ware, the Cowboys' best pass rusher, will no doubt be eager to pad his totals against such a struggling unit.

The Packers have changed their defensive system this year to a 3-4 system and whilst they are getting there, they will need to be careful of WR Miles Austin. Since becoming a starter in Week Five, Austin has 22 catches for 531 yards and seven touchdowns. He will try and keep up his hot play against Green Bay's eighth-ranked pass defence. TE Jason Whitten will also be a major target for Dallas QB Tony Romo who bids to keep his November winning steal intact - Romo has won 13 consecutive November starts -- the longest such streak for a quarterback since 1950.

The Packers need to get some balance into their offence and whilst they like the Cowboys have a powerful receiving corps it would be better to see RB Ryan Grant used more - when Grant has 22 carries or more the Pack are 10-1.

Dallas have rarely won in Green Bay and and if Green Bay can provide better protection for Rodgers today they have a chance of matching a Dallas side which sometimes struggles to string two big performances together.

Recommendation: 1pt Green Bay +3.5 at 1.77 or better