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NFL Betting, Week 15 : Crucial weekend in play-off race

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Andy Richmond looks at the Browns vs the Bills and the Jaguars trip to Pittsburgh - two games that will make or break a season...

I'm often told by my better half that men can't multi task - well if that's the case it's a skill we are going to have to learn fast to take in the two best games of the week, both live on SKY but at the same time, praise be for their interactive service.

At the beginning of October the only thing that the Cleveland Browns and the Buffalo Bills had in common was a losing record and the distinct possibility of some high draft picks in 2008. The Bills were having trouble scoring and the Bills couldn't score at all, neither a recipe for a winning season. Fast forward to mid-December and the pair are fighting it out for a play-off berth.

The winner of this contest on Sunday will take a giant step to securing the final AFC playoff spot - the Browns have little margin for error but for the Bills, it's win or out.

The Browns are still in with a chance of winning their division although a wildcard spot is more realistic. Whatever happens this season, keep an eye on this team as I think they are now on the upswing.

So what has caused the "rise" of these two teams because statistically neither can really be said to have improved. I put a lot of it down to two young quarterbacks, with Derek Anderson for the Browns particularly impressing me this year. As he has done all season, Anderson will be looking to play catch down the field with his favourite receivers - wide out Braylon Edwards, who with 13 TDs is third in the NFL, and his fantastic tight end Kellen Winslow. If Anderson can find those two on a regular basis - which he should do against an essentially limited Bills secondary - and the Browns physical offensive line can open the running lanes for premier running back Jamal Lewis, then I can see the Browns taking a major step closer to their first playoff game since 2002.

While the Browns have been excellent at moving the ball, stopping it moving has been another factor. The defence has been shaky all year although the shoots of recovery are starting to show and they'll need to turn up again on Sunday. Directed by Trent Edwards, the Bills' offence is steadily building in confidence and he'll use speedy WR Lee Evans to stretch the field and stop the Browns stacking the defensive line in a bid to limit explosive rookie running back Marshawn Lynch. Edwards, who is having a very solid season for a first year man, doesn't have a power arm such as a Brady, Favre or Romo so expect a steady collection of yardage - the Bills are not big scorers.

Protecting the ball will be key and the Browns will need to reduce the number of silly turnovers that can blight their offence - the Bills have committed just 17 this year. Another will be special teams where the Browns have the exciting talent of Jason Cribbs - watch out for him on punt and kick-off returns.

For me ,the Browns with homefield advantage just edge this one - they are 5-1 at home this year and will have their vibrant and passionate support fired up for this one, although [1.44] in the match odds is nothing to get excited about, giving up 5 ½ points the Browns are backable at around [1.95] and that's a play for me. With the Browns offence emerging as one of the league's best and the Bills defence only ranked 30th, take a look at the total Cleveland points market. Pitched at 25.5pts I would back the over's here at around [1.9], especially as Cleveland has scored at least 27 points in 8 games this year and against better defences than they will face on Sunday.

Running alongside this game - the Jags roll into Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers, who took a hammering at the Patriots last week. For a side whose three previous losses came by a combined total of 13 points, losing by 21 (even if it was to the unbeaten Pats) isn't going to be easy to shake off. Few teams are playing as well as the Jags at the current time. Fresh from spanking the Panthers last week 37-6, the Jags aim to claim the top AFC wildcard berth for the play-offs. Their power running game and suffocating run defence will match the Steelers if this becomes a show of strength. This is going to be a tough, hard nosed, played in the trenches game of football - which is what these two do best.

Pittsburgh are perfect at home this season but even that record is unlikely to earn them a first round bye in the playoffs and it won't surprise me to see these two locking horns again in a few weeks time.

The Jags' tempo will be set by a player who I'm sure will become a star in future seasons. QB David Garrard has been superbly efficient, backed up by the dual running threat of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. For the Steelers, we always expect their game to be built on a running attack and it still is. Willie Parker is a mainstay in that department, but new offensive co-ordinator Bruce Arians has introduced some changes this year, allowing Ben Roethlisberger to operate with multiple receiver sets - something which the Jags could be a little vulnerable to, with their secondary being the achilles heel of the defence.

I must admit that I was hoping to see the Jags available with around a 5 ½ point start but alas it's only 3 ½ which is tight. I'll cut my stakes back because of that but have a small play on the momentum-filled Jags at [1.9] with those points. For those of you able to play in-running my start point would be a lay of the Steelers in the match odds at [1.6] - I'm sure there is enough elasticity in that price to facilitate a green book at some point in this tight encounter.

One final word on this game - the weather conditions are predicted to be cold and snowy and Heinz Field has not been in the best conditions lately so it could have a large bearing on the total points market. With reasonable conditions these two could still score points and sometimes you have to go against the crowd and the [2.4] for over 39 ½ points is my against the flow bet here.

A pivotal week for many in the NFL - with a few carrying on and many more going home.

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