Betfair Official Blog

Lions in for an afternoon of pain as the Giants come to play

Click here to view market

Andy Richmond forecasts a tight victory for New York in his weekly NFL betting preview

The gauge on the NFL pressure cooker will hit the red-zone as of this weekend. All the bye weeks have been completed and from hereon in the stakes are raised even higher as every pass, tackle and touchdown counts towards play-off glory and, ultimately, the Superbowl.

Sky Sports gives us a chance to view three potential contenders on Sunday - sorry 'Skins fans but you ain't gonna make it this year (but more of that later).

First up is a match of two teams with identical records of 6-3 - the Lions and the Giants. This intriguing game pits together two teams who are coming off disappointing losses last week - the Lions 31-21 to Arizona where they recorded an embarrassing minus 18 yards on the ground thanks to injuries to their star running back Kevin Jones. The Giants on the other hand beat themselves against the division-leading Cowboys 31-20, where they had two touchdowns called back for holding penalties while poor game management by quarterback Eli Manning saw him called for three delay of game infractions. Those mistakes are always going to hurt you against a top-class outfit like the Cowboys.

This then is a pivotal game in the play-off race - both teams are struggling to keep tabs on the leaders in their division and a wild card spot is their realistic aim.

The Giants have the most balanced offence with a very strong ground game - the trio of backs that they have in Jacobs, Ward and Droughns are all capable of sharing the load and producing yardage as well as the ability to control the game and clock too. Despite doubts about Manning at quarterback, he does operate behind a very solid offensive line where guards Rich Seubert and Chris Snee have provided excellent protection. Inconsistent Manning looks brilliant at times but does have a tendency to make one major faux pas a game.

But while that Giants' offensive line and running game is solid, their passing game, featuring Burress and Shockey, is simply explosive. There are slight doubts about Burress, who has been playing with an injury for much of the year yet still hasn't missed a game and is tied fourth in the NFL in receiving touchdowns with eight. I have a feeling that Manning will be looking for tight end Shockey again after a career high 12 receptions for 129 yards against the Cowboys last week, after the Lions appeared to have major problems defending against the passing routes of the Cardinals tight end Leonard Pope last week.

Despite a league leading 28 takeaways, the Lions are a steady defensive team who have some nightmare weeks - the 56 points given up to the Eagles in week three being a particular 'Elm Street' moment. Their reliable front four needs to generate greater pressure on Manning than they have been doing whilst the linebackers and secondary are a little thin and can be picked apart by a smart quarterback.

Lions coach Rod Marinelli believes his team are "truly special" and while the jury is still out on that one they are going in the right direction after a 3-13 season last year and could make the play-offs for the first time since 1999. The offence and the arm of quarterback John Kitna have had an enormous amount to do with that success and - until last week when they totally abandoned the running game - the offence had a nice balance to it. There is no doubt that Kitna would love to throw the ball on every down if he could, but running back Kevin Jones gives a creditable threat on the ground.

My problem with Kitna is his mobility. He often struggles under pressure as that lack of mobility fails to extricate him from an explosive pass rush and that is something the Giants have. A league leading 32 sacks is testimony to their effectiveness and the gang of four - Tuck, Kiwanuka, Umenyioura and veteran Strahan - will be going Kitna-hunting on Sunday. The Lions' QB has been sacked 37 times this season, seven more than any other, and you are starting to look at a long afternoon if the Giants gain the ascendancy.

If Kitna does manage to stave off the pass rush then in Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson he does have the potential wideouts to hurt the Giants. Wiliams is the 'go-to guy' who is very difficult to cover one-on-one and can open up opportunities for the rest of the offence whilst Johnson is a deep threat likely to break for big yards. The Giants may have an excellent pass rush but the secondary can prove vulnerable and if he gets time (a BIG if), then Kitna could strike.

This is a pressure game for both sides which will ultimately decide where they finish in the play-off race. Neither team can afford to fall behind in the divisional race and despite being unbeaten at Ford Field this year the Lions have a fallible look to me so the Giants look worthy favourites at around [1.71]. A couple of other prices I will be looking for on the game will be Shockey at around [1.8] to score a touchdown at anytime, especially after his career best performance last week and finally the total points line at 49.5 looks a touch on the high side especially if the Giants eat the clock via their strong running game - look for around [1.92] on the unders there.

Very quickly and with space at a premium (thanks ED) - if the Giants, Lions game has whetted the appetite then you really should stay tuned for one of the great NFL rivalries when the Redskins take on the Cowboys at Texas Stadium. The Cowboys' home has not been a happy hunting ground for the 'Skins lately with just one win in their last ten visits. This year's team has fallen way short of expectations, relying heavily on running back Clinton Portis to carry the team.

The Cowboys on the other hand are tied for the lead in the NFC with the Packers at 8-1 (those two meet in Week 13 incidentally) and are not far away from sealing the division and a top spot on the play-off ladder. They won't want to let up now against a Redskins team dealt another injury blow this week with the loss of free safety Shaun Taylor weakening an already shaky and depleted secondary. This will be music to the ears of Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo, one of the emerging stars of the game has controversial and brilliant Terrell Owens as one of many weapons. Add to that the dual running threat of Marion Barber - modus operandi "never let up" - and Julius Jones and you have a potent offence ready to keep the season-long momentum going against this average Redskins team. You won't get rich backing the Cowboys at around the [1.2] mark but do take a chance to check out a team you will be seeing a lot of in the coming weeks and possibly the Super Bowl come February. The time is coming where the pressure is getting higher and if you can't stand the heat you had better get out of the kitchen. Enjoy the games!

• US Sports
• NFL