Can Peterson get 'The Pack' on the run? Green Bay take on Minnesota

NFL / Andy Richmond / 09 November 2007 / Leave a Comment

This week's featured NFL clash sees the run-crazy Vikings meet the pass-happy Packers......the game is live from 6pm, Sunday on SKY Sports 2.

It's a privilege to write about this week's featured clash as I've had a 27 year long-distance love affair with "The Pack". I finally fulfilled a dream by visiting one of the great sporting arenas - Lambeau Field - two years ago. Despite having seen the Packers on the road many times it was my first visit to what is a special stadium.

Lambeau this week sees the Packers return from a successful two game road trip to the Chiefs and Broncos - both of which have formidable home records over the past 17 years. So the Packers are clearly on a roll and I think it's fair to say exceeding all expectations, mine included, as they continue to set the pace along with the Cowboys in the NFC.

For the Vikings the season so far has been one of disappointment and under achievement - but over the horizon has come a rising star in rookie running back Adrian Peterson who has the football pundits in the US salivating. Peterson is known as A.D which stands for All Day because that's how he runs. After being tenderly handled at the start of the season, Vikings head coach Brad Childress has turned Peterson loose with devastating effect - last week he barrelled his way to a record breaking 296 yards rushing vs. the Chargers - breaking the single game rushing record in the process.

Peterson may be one of the best running backs to enter the league since the late and great Walter Payton who had that rare combination of speed and power that Peterson obviously also possesses, along with the ability to hit the holes and make those killer cutbacks that can unbalance any defence. Who'll be handing him the ball on Sunday is anyone's guess so keep an eye on the team news as the Vikings have massive problems at quarterback after injuries all season long have decimated them in that position.

If we were building a fantasy offence, it would be easy to take the Vikings running game and the Packers passing game and - hey presto - we would have one potent combination. But unfortunately this is real life and both teams lack a balanced attacking option.

Whilst the Vikings have Peterson, the Packers season has been built on a man whose career is in its twilight but continues to have a passion and enthusiasm for the game which is to my mind special - that man is Brett Favre. Favre flirted with retirement but has come back and broken a host of records this season, including a major milestone against the Vikings back in Week 4 when he became the all-time leader in touchdown passes, eclipsing Dan Marino. Favre and his young band of receivers have shredded some good defences this year and the Vikings' porous secondary, containing former Packers safety Darren Sharper, will have to remain vigilant to keep the Packers in check - whilst having his favourite receivers, notably Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, Favre threw to seven different targets last week.

Can either side move away from the focal points of their offence - I don't think so and I don't think they should, therefore this will boil down to the Packers controlling Peterson and the Vikings taking away the pass options for the Packers.

Back in Week 4 when these two sides met at the Metrodome - Peterson was very much still an "unknown quantity" and the Packers yielded 112 yards to him - the only time this unit has given up this amount of yards to a single running back this season. When you consider that this very same unit has contained backs of the quality of Brian Westbrook, Ladainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson it makes you realise how special a talent Peterson is. However, Peterson is now very much on the radar of everyone in the NFL and he can be contained. The Eagles and the Cowboys have already done just that and the Packers will be looking to the potent defensive end combination of Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (a commentators nightmare so KGB is easier) to contain and control the Peterson threat. Forcing him to run inside means he can be picked up by the lightning quick middle line backer Nick Barnett who - along with another star-in-the-making AJ Hawk - forms another potent Packers defensive combination.

Despite the Vikings efficiency running the ball this year the Packers can shut them down. If they manage to do that then the Vikings will be in big trouble, with their passing game ranked 30th in the league. Whilst the Packers are similarly unbalanced on offence it's not all about one receiver and Favre has lots of weapons and a very poor secondary to take aim at - one dimensional it may be but it's proving very effective.

So where then are we going to make some profit in this game? Well we have a similar match up - not in terms of quality - but in terms of trading opportunity as the Colts vs. Patriots game last week. Despite the Pats winning the game you could have laid them at the 1.44 before the game and traded out at a high of 6.0 - and I can see similar opportunities this time. Let's face it, if the Packers do run out easy winners then there is not much damage in laying at deep odds-on. I'd always be a layer of the short prices as my opening gambit in games such as these as there is always room to trade. Even the most one eyed Packers fan must concede that this team is over-performing and they have squeezed home in some tight ones on the back of the mercurial arm of Favre often late in the game, so don't write them off at any stage as Favre recorded his 40th career '4th quarter comeback' victory last Sunday.

Remember - traditionally Packers and Vikings games are close affairs dating back to a Packers victory, 26-22 on Dec 8th 2002 at Lambeau. The last ten regular season meetings have been decided by seven points or less and I expect it to be another close one. So use the trading option or perhaps it may be worth looking at the winning margin market and taking the Pack to win by between 1-6 points. My guide price on that would be to ask for some 5.0 (4-1) and have a small saver on the Packers to win by 7-12 points also at around the 5.5 (9-2) mark. For those of you who like the h'cap markets then Minnesota +6.5 points could be the option.

Personally I think that the Packers will win (well, what did you expect?!) but it's going to be close with some twists and turns along the way as these two old foes once again face off at my spiritual home Lambeau Field. You'll see one living legend of the game in Favre, you may just witness the emergence of another one in Peterson. Enjoy the game!!

Postscript: Sunday's game finished 31-0 to the Packers. Adrian Peterson managed just 45 yards rushing...Full details of the game are available here