NFL / Andy Richmond / 24 December 2008 / Leave a comment

Andy Richmond looks at the contenders for post-season play in the AFC - three spots are taken - but the other three are wide open and the Dolphins could be one of them.

Six places, three taken, three there for the taking and six teams still in the running for those remaining places, that is, in it's simplest form the AFC play-off picture.

Sunday's games bring a mind boggling labyrinth of possibilities. There are bound to be moments when one minute a team is in, and the next they're out.

Let's deal with the known factors first, both Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers are done and dusted as the first two seeds respectively.

Tennessee set the early pace this year and, despite a small blip, came back strongly last week when beating up the Steelers to seal the number one slot - rough, tough and with a dominating defence, Tennessee have rediscovered their momentum at the right time and will hit the post-season fit, healthy and rested. Nashville will be a tough place to visit.

Pittsburgh will at least have two weeks to recover from the Titans defeat to steel themselves for a re-match. Tough they may be but I was disappointed in their demeanour and heart last week and they need to rebound post season.

Before it gets complicated, the only other team that has their post-Xmas play sorted are the Colts from Indianapolis - an eight game winning streak has carried them this far and they are a dangerous wild card that nobody will want to play. Just one negative though is the lack of a running game and will MVP contender QB Peyton Manning be able to carry them all the way again?

Simple facts over, here comes the difficult part - if Baltimore beat Jacksonville this week they take the remaining wild card spot. The Ravens are really starting to remind me of the Giants of last year, who of course went all the way to Superbowl glory. Baltimore play physical football and will be a dangerous opponent wherever they go next.

Well that was easy, a Baltimore victory solves another spot, let's move onto the car crash that is the AFC West. This looked all over about a month ago but the Denver Broncos lost confidence, started leaking points and are close to being the second team in NFL history to blow a three game divisional lead. I'd argue that if you lose to divisional rivals like the Chiefs and Raiders you don't deserve to win the division and now they face divisional rivals San Diego in a one-game battle for the play-offs.

The Chargers have had a season of turmoil and close defeats, including a 39-38 loss to the Broncos back in Week Two when the officiating crew made one of the mistakes of the season so far.

So it's a winner takes all scenario in the AFC West and the number four seed up for grabs. For me, the Chargers deserve a break and they can win a points fest on the back of Rivers' arm to break into the post-season 'AFC Six'.

Still with me? Take a deep breath then, because this is where it gets really complicated - the AFC East. NY Jets, Miami and New England form a three headed monster of a conundrum that involves not only them but other teams and results too.

For Miami the equation is simple: beat the Jets and lock down the number three seed, lose and they are (almost) certainly sitting at home for the New Year, having come that close to completing the comeback of the season, remember that these boys were 1-15 last year.

The Jets may well they must be pointing to their West Coast failures (0-4) as the games which cost them a divisional title, throw in the back story of playing against their former QB Chad Pennington, who they were quick to jettison when they sold their soul to bring back former Packers icon Brett Favre and you have the making of a massive showdown with huge and pivotal implications. Even if the Jets do win they are relying on others to do them a favour.

There's one last piece of the jigsaw left then - the Patriots. Like the Jets they will be relying on others, the first thing they must do is win in Buffalo and then hope for a Miami defeat which would carry them to an unlikely AFC title and one of the compelling stories of the year after losing QB Tom Brady, the jewel in their crown, earlier in the year.

Phew! Got there, I think!!

My AFC Super Six...
1 - Tennessee - rough, tough, gritty and hard to beat.
2 - Pittsburgh - not as bombproof as once thought, the Titans showed that.
3 - Miami - Flipper completes the comeback in NY - 1-15 all but forgotten.
4 - San Diego - where did they come from? 8-8 gets them in.
5 - Indianapolis - riding the Manning wave, but need to find a running game.
6 - Baltimore - beat Jacksonville and then attempt a Giants imitation.