General Election Bet of the Day: Conservatives to win Darlington

Election Bet of the Day / Paul Krishnamurty / 30 April 2010 / Leave a Comment

Bigger fish to fry? Outgoing MP Alan Milburn has been combining his constituency duties with numerous private sector jobs.

"There will be numerous upsets in the constituency betting, and this could well be one. It has the classic appearance of a once safe seat that Labour has taken for granted."

To many this is no more than an outside target for the Tories and the odds would back that up but scratch beneath the surface and you'll see that they're in with a real chance of grabbing this seat...against the odds, says Paul Krishnamurty.

Based purely on the size of Labour's majority, and projected uniform national swing, Darlington would be at best an outside Tory target, as the [5.5] odds suggest. They require a 13% swing, as opposed to the approximate 6% predicted in national polls. It is my firm view, however, that we need to take a more nuanced approach when measuring the swing in each seat.

Regional and tactical factors were already in play, and the Lib Dems' dramatic rise has blown apart many assumptions about uniform swing. Their vote is very heavily concentrated in strongholds, whereas in Darlington, they've never looked like rising above third place. Their effect here could be to substantially eat into the Labour vote, thereby letting the Tories in through the middle.

There will be numerous upsets in the constituency betting, and this could well be one. It has the classic appearance of a once safe seat that Labour has taken for granted. Outgoing MP Alan Milburn was once spoken of as leadership material, but since withdrawing from frontline politics, has been combining his constituency duties with numerous private sector jobs.

Darlington was Conservative up until 1992, and their strategists have mentioned it as a key seat. By all accounts, the campaign in the constituency is very one-sided, between a well-financed, slick Tory machine and hollowed out Labour. For all these reasons, I rate this the best value Tory outsider.

Conservatives to win Darlington @ [5.5]