Election Bet of the Day: Conservatives to win Morley & Outwood

Election Bet of the Day / Paul Krishnamurty / 01 May 2010 / Leave a Comment

Balls could be a victim of Labour's deep unpopularity

"Bigotgate has not played well for Labour in areas like this and it cannot help that Balls is most famous for being Gordon Brown's closest ally."

The media vultures looking for Labour's 'Portillo moment' are circling Schools Secretary Ed Balls' and his Yorkshire constituency of Morley and Outwood where a shock looks likelier by the day

With Labour sinking fast, Morley and Outwood is getting plenty of media attention as it could be this election's 'Portillo moment'. Like the Thatcherite prospect turned media pundit in 1997, Schools Secretary Ed Balls fancies himself as the next leader of his party, but suddenly faces the fight of his life just to save his career.

Newsnight ran a feature on the constituency hustings yesterday, and it didn't make happy viewing for Labour supporters. There is a substantial BNP presence in the Labour stronghold of Morley, and immigration was a major issue at the hustings. Bigotgate has not played well for Labour in areas like this and it cannot help that Balls is most famous for being Gordon Brown's closest ally.

The swing required here is a massive 12.5%, vastly beyond the current 5% national projections, but that is expected to be much bigger in Yorkshire. Differential turnout could also be a key factor in this well-publicised contest. The Tories will get their Outwood voters to the polls in their droves to oust this arch-enemy, and are running a typically well-financed operation across the constituency.

Even without tempting many Labour switchers, that could be enough to win the seat if, as expected, Labour voters either stay at home or fragment to smaller parties, not least the BNP.

Recommended Bet:
Conservatives to win Morley and Outwood @ [2.4]