England v Sri Lanka First T20 Tips: Donald not one to duck at 11/2

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Tuesday 15 September, 18:30
TV: Sky Sports

England v Sri Lanka first T20 team news

On the face of it, England have an injury crisis for this format. Phil Salt (quadriceps), Jacob Bethell (knee) and Sam Curran (groin) are all injured and would be considered big-time players.

But such is the depth of talent that the English game is producing that fears of an under-strength team performing poorly do not seem warranted. For a start, Salt's absence means we get to see the (overdue) sight of Aneurin Donald in an England shirt. Donald should open the batting with Jos Buttler. Jamie Overton comes in as a like-for-like for Curran while Sonny Baker's inclusion is a no-brainer given his performances in The Hundred.

It is perhaps a little disappointing that England continue to waste games to try to find a long-term replacement for Adil Rashid, or someone who could fill in if, God forbid, he was injured.

It wouldn't be a huge surprise if England resisted the temptation to pick any of their test bowlers in Gus Atkinson, Josh Tongue and Jofra Archer. Baker and Saqib Mahmood are more than capable.

Possible XI: Donald, Buttler, Brook, Banton, Cox, Jacks, J Overton, Dawson, Rashid, Baker, Mahmood 

Just when it looked as though an Asia side could finally come over this summer (credit to Pakistan in the third at Edgbaston) and be competitive, Sri Lanka's T20 team were crushed in consecutive games by nine wickets by England Lions. It's not a good start for those hoping for a competitive contest, which have been sadly lacking.

Sri Lanka disappointed with the bat in the first game against Lions and improved only to post something respectable in the second. Those showings, by the way, are unlikely to worry England if they were at all unsure about resting Archer and co.

There are a core of players who one would regard as close to elite in this format. Opener Pathnum Nissanka is one of the best, Dasun Shanaka a more-than-solid performer in franchise while the bowling unit is strong. Maheesh Theekshana, Dushmantha Chameera and Nuwan Thushara are dangerous. They should also be bolstered by Wanindu Hasaranga's availability.

Possible XI: Nissanka, Udara, Asalanka, Kamindu, Shanaka, Liyanage, Wellalage, Hasaranga, Ratnayake, Theekshana, Chameera

England v Sri Lanka first T20 pitch report 

The Southampton weather looks likely to play ball with a perfect summer day giving way to a warm evening on the coast. That's great news for gamblers as any hint of rain or cloud would have put those off expecting (and hoping) for a runfest. The portents are good for this track.

In the last 30 T20 matches played there the average first-innings score comes in at 178 with a high of 257. That 257 was, of course, courtesy of English blades against India in July. India themselves replied with 201. The previous international saw England post 248 against West Indies, who replied with 211. Filtering only T20i (of which there have been 14) we have an average RPO of 8.7.

The immediate reaction may well be to reckon that this is a ground to bet both teams to score. But hold on. We're not in a position to trust Sri Lanka's batting after twin warm-up disasters so chuck out as many variables as you can and hope England bat first. That's the time to start betting brackets of 210-240 or more on the Betfair Exchange.

A big reason for that is the fact the Southampton is a pace ground. In other words, spinners don't tend to get much grip. Sri Lanka's absolutely rely on spin and it could be negated in this contest.

England v Sri Lanka first T20 match prediction 

Sri Lanka haven't beaten England in a T20 for 12 years and that sequence looks likely to be extended. Sri Lanka couldn't have picked a worse venue to try to end that run.

The numbers make grim reading in terms of long- and short-term form for them. They have lost 12 in a row against England while there last 15 against all opponents have resulted in 10 losses. As for England, they hammered world champions India 4-0 earlier in the summer in another dispiritingly one-sided heat.

The betting focus is on how England win. Betfair Sportsbook will do the business in time but a starter for ten is the 3/14.00 that England have the highest opening partnership, first-over score and highest six-over score. Each of those variables play to the massive power gap in favour of England. Sri Lanka just can't live with their hitting across the majority of metrics.

England v Sri Lanka first T20 player tips 

Donald is expected to take Ben Duckett's spot at the top of the order. It is overdue as he is one of the new breed of hitters who sees every ball as an opportunity to hit a six. There is no more destructive opener in the world game and he makes Duckett, no slouch, look as if the game has passed him by. Sportsbook offer a boosted 11/26.50 that Donald top scores. He has already taken a liking to this Sri Lanka attack in the warm-up when he struck 31 from just eight balls. This could look like a very big price indeed by the end of his career.

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