World Cup 2010 / Matthew Walton / 06 October 2009 / Leave a comment

England, Spain and Netherlands have all qualified for the World Cup and though the Netherlands did end up with an 100% qualifying record, the other two are unlikely to follow suit, says "Magical" Matthew Walton.

"For all the public assurances of Fabio Capello and Vincente del Bosque their teams will look to win these games they are, for all intents and purposes, glorified friendlies."

Whilst the forthcoming week of World Cup qualifying action will confirm several more names in the line-up for South Africa 2010, three European countries are already assured a place at next year's finals.

England, Spain and Holland have all dominated their respective qualifying groups, each recording an impressive 8 wins out of 8 in their section. In fact, the Dutch, whose five team group has already finished, are the first country since West Germany, back in 1982, to achieve a 100% record in qualification.

Next up England and Spain aim to emulate that feat but as much as they might wish to qualify in a similarly perfect manner as Bert van Marwijk's men, there is a point to be made that with the job of qualifying done ... what is there left to play for?

In the case of Holland, they had Group 8 won with two games to spare but still finished their schedule with a 2-0 home win over Norway and a 1-0 victory in Scotland. Now it's the turn of England, who face Ukraine (A) and Belarus (H), and Spain, taking on Armenia (A) and Bosnia-Herzegovina (A), to try and complete a clean sweep of their qualifying sections.

Looking back over previous World Cup qualifying campaigns, notably since 1994 when group sizes were expanded to include 5, 6 or even 7 nations and the answer is pretty clear - neither England nor Spain can be considered 'good things' to end their groups with their winning record intact.

Prior to the 2006 finals, each of Holland, Portugal, Italy and Ukraine had won their groups before the last round of matches. From their collective total of 'dead rubbers' the results were P5 W2 D2 L1 - form figures which wouldn't have taken them to the top of their groups in the first place as, for example, Holland and the Ukraine were both held to home draws by moderate opponents, Macedonia and Albania respectively.

In 2002, the record was P4 W2 D1 L1 as each of Sweden, Poland and Spain booked their places in Japan and South Korea with time to spare.

France 1998 saw the best return as Norway won both their 'free games' and Romania won two out of three - only failing to make it a perfect 10 out of 10 with a final draw away to Eire - and before USA 1994 it was the Norwegians, again, who won their group a match early ... and then promptly lost to Turkey.

That overall tally of P15 W8 D4 L3, given these were by far and away the best countries in these particular groups, represents very modest form.

Given such statistics it would be foolish to approach these forthcoming matches under the impression they mean anything to either England or Spain. For all the public assurances of Fabio Capello and Vincente del Bosque their teams will look to win these games they are, for all intents and purposes, glorified friendlies.

Moreover, will players really push themselves to the limit twice in five days in what are nothing matches? Will these international managers not be tempted to make changes to personnel and playing formations now afforded the luxury of a couple of competitive training sessions? And won't the respective club managers of these players be demanding their men be given an easy time with important domestic and European fixtures on the horizon?

Spain are currently [1.2] to win away to the group's bottom side, Armenia, this weekend but they will surely face a much stiffer test away to Bosnia-Herzegovina next Wednesday. England's fixtures fall the other way around. Capello's side will want to win their final game next week in front of their home fans, against lowly Belarus, but they certainly cut an uneasy figure as the [2.66] favourites to triumph in the Ukraine on Saturday.

In short, nobody will remember this qualifying campaign come next Summer and both these sides, with their places already booked for South Africa 2010, have achieved their immediate goal. As such, they represent very risky betting propositions this coming week.

Tags: England football team, football bets, football odds, World Cup betting, World Cup qualifying