World Cup Group I Betting Guide: Betfair traders rate France, Iraq, Norway and Senegal

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France

Odds to win the World Cup: 9/25.50
Odds to win Group I: 4/91.44

Profile

France have appeared in the last two World Cup finals, winning in 2018 and finishing as runners-up to Argentina in Qatar in 2022. In Kylian Mbappe they boast one of the best players on the planet while Ousmane Dembele is the current Ballon d'Or winner. Les Bleus will believe they can reach a third successive final and win the tournament for the third time in their history.

How they qualified

France comfortably topped UEFA Group D and qualified automatically, dropping just two points in the whole campaign. They tallied 16 goals during qualification with the most convincing win coming in November against group runners up Ukraine when the game ended 4-0 in Paris. 

Manager  

Didier Deschamps steered France to victory in the 2018 World Cup in Russia, topping their group and defeating Argentina, Uruguay and Belgium in the knockout stages. A 4-2 victory against Croatia in the final secured France's second World Cup title. The Frenchman has announced he won't be staying on in his role following this year's tournament so he'll be even more determined to repeat 2018's victory. 

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The Squad

Four players from France's 2018 winning squad are included in the 2026 squad - Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, N'Golo Kanté and Lucas Hernandez. Mbappé and Dembélé will be key, with captain Mbappé leading the forward line and Dembélé part of the attacking three behind. Olise will feature in the attacking line, with the other spot up for grabs. Rabiot and Tchouameni are the preferred centre-midfield pairing, with Upamecano and Saliba at centre-back, Maignan in goal, Kounde favourite to start at right-back and left-back a competition between Hernández and Digne. 

Key Man

Now 27, Kylian Mbappé is representing his country in his fifth major international tournament. He made his World Cup debut in France's winning team in Russia in 2018, scoring four goals and received the best young player accolade, while in 2022 he scored eight and took home the golden boot. He was on fire for Real Madrid this season, scoring 40 goals in 43 matches across all competitions.  

One To Watch 

Twenty-yearold Désiré Doué will be competing for a starting position alongside names such as Olise, Cherki and Barcola - but the winger has been impressive for PSG this season, racking up seven goals and four assists in Ligue 1, five goals and five assists in the Champions League. He only made his senior debut for France in March 2025 but the top class dribble netted a brace in a recent friendly against Colombia.  

Tournament prospects

France will be expected to top Group I. Les Bleus are strong contenders to win the tournament alongside Spain but the two could meet in the semi-final if both win their respective groups.  

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Iraq

Odds to win the World Cup: 500/1501.00
Odds to win Group I: 66/167.00

Profile

Iraq return to the World Cup for the first time since 1986. Ranked 57th in the world, the Lions of Mesopotamia have steadily risen through the AFC ranks under Graham Arnold, climbing from 70th in 2023 after a successful qualification campaign.

How They Qualified

Iraq cruised through the AFC Second Round with six wins from six matches before finishing third behind South Korea and Jordan in the Third Round. That result sent them into the play-offs, where dramatic victories over the UAE and Bolivia secured qualification. Iraq finished qualification with an impressive record of 13 wins, four draws and only two defeats across 19 matches.

The Manager

Graham Arnold took charge in May 2025 after a successful spell with Australia, whom he guided to the Round of 16 at the 2022 World Cup. The Australian has implemented a pragmatic approach based on defensive structure, direct attacking play and set-piece efficiency. While his side often concede possession against stronger opponents, they remain difficult to break down and are capable of punishing mistakes in transition.

The Squad

Iraq's squad blends experienced domestic players with a growing number of Europe-based talents. Veteran goalkeeper Jalal Hassan is an influential figure, while defenders Merchas Doski, Hussein Ali and Rebin Sulaka form the backbone of the defence. In midfield, Zidane Iqbal provides composure on the ball alongside Amir Al-Ammari and Aimar Sher. Out wide, Ali Jasim offers creativity and flair. Up front, captain Aymen Hussein partners Ali Al-Hamadi, giving Iraq a physical attacking duo.

Key Man

The captain and focal point of Iraq's attack, Aymen Hussein is the player everything revolves around. With 33 international goals, he combines physical presence, aerial dominance and strong hold-up play, making him perfectly suited to Arnold's direct style.

One to Watch

Ali Jasim, the 22-year-old winger, is Iraq's most exciting attacking talent and primary creative outlet. A direct dribbler with excellent close control and set-piece delivery, Jasim has the ability to unlock defences and create chances. His willingness to take on defenders gives Iraq a different dimension.

Tournament Prospects

Iraq face a daunting challenge in Group I so progression to the knockout stages would be one of the biggest achievements in the country's footballing history. The realistic target will be remaining competitive and targeting points against Norway and Senegal. A group-stage exit remains the most likely outcome.

Author: Adam Furlong

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Norway

Odds to win the World Cup: 33/134.00
Odds to win Group I: 11/43.75

Profile

Norway were the biggest price movers in the months leading up to the World Cup and quickly became a 'dark horse' for a deep run. The team didn't record a loss in 2025, finishing the year with 7W and 1D across all competitions. For some Norway are still a bit of an unknown quantity as they have qualified for the WC only three times before (last in 1998) and yet they have reached the knockout stages in 2 of those 3 appearances.  

How they Qualified

Having been priced at around 5/23.50 to win their qualifying group and therefore qualify directly, Norway over-achieved by dominating their group, which included Italy and Israel, winning all eight matches. They boasted a +32-goal difference as they conceded in only half of their matches. This made Norway one of the best performers in the European Qualifiers. 

The Manager

Ståle Solbakken has managed Norway since 2020, during which time Norway have averaged a 57.4%-win rate, so he's currently their best ever manager. Before taking the national team role, Solbakken spent seven years at FC Copenhagen, winning three league titles and reaching the Europa League quarter-finals in 2019-2020. Solbakkenis adapts his team to maximise their strengths and their formation often depends on who they're playing. 

The Squad

Norway line up in a typical 4-4-2, although Solbakken rotates and experiments. In possession, Norway often switch to a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation to create space out wide if the counterattack down the channel isn't on. Their attack is star-studded with Erling Haaland leads the line alongside promising youngsters Antonio Nusa and Oscar Bobb, and experienced Alexander Sorloth. Midfield is anchored by Martin Odegaard. The back line lacks marquee names on paper but makes a solid foundation.  

Key Man

Norway's aspirations depend on Erling Haaland's ability to perform on the biggest stage. In qualifying, he scored 16 goals and provided 3 assists, accounting for roughly 50% of their attacking output. This season at Manchester City, he's continued his prolific form with 30+ goals, proving he can deliver consistently against elite defences. If Haaland maintains this trajectory, Norway has a genuine chance of a deep run. 

One to Watch  

Nusa is poised for a breakthrough World Cup if he can handle the pressure. Starting almost every game alongside Haaland during qualification, the pair have developed an understanding that will be crucial. His three assists (tied for the team's most) show he can unlock defences, while his status as the second most fouled player in the team underscores the defensive threat he poses. 

Tournament Prospects

In a strong group, Norway need to hit the ground running from day one. Realistically, Norway should target advancing from the group, and anything less would be a disappointment given their qualification form. Beyond that, it's a genuine toss-up: they have the quality to upset some of the big favourites and make a deep run to the quarterfinals or semi-finals, but a potential R32/R16 clash against Spain or England could see them knocked out early. 

Author: Liam O'Carroll

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Senegal

Odds to win the World Cup: 150/1151.00
Odds to win Group I: 7/18.00

Profile

The Lions of Teranga arrive at the World Cup embroiled in controversy after CAF stripped them of the AFCON trophy. They are a squad brimming with Premier League and European top-flight quality, carrying a grievance that has united the nation. If Senegal needed extra motivation, they've got it. 

How They Qualified for World Cup 2026 

Senegal's qualification path was anything but straightforward. In a group with DR Congo, Sudan, Togo, South Sudan and Mauritania, it went down to the wire. Senegal's attacking firepower and mental resilience eventually got them through. 

The Manager 

Pape Bouna Thiaw was appointed as head coach in late 2024. According to CAF's official profile, he is "renowned for his attacking philosophy and dynamic approach" and has "brought modern football tactics to Senegal, building a team that balances flair and discipline."

The Squad  

Chelsea's Edouard Mendy is the number one, defender Kalidou Koulibaly (33, Al-Hilal) is the captain, while Nottingham Forest's Moussa Niakhate and Chelsea youngster Mamadou Sarr are also part of the defensive set-up. Everton's Idrissa Gueye is the midfield anchor. Sadio Mane (32, Al-Nassr) is the talisman with 129 caps and 54 goals while Nicolas Jackson and Ismaila Sarr also provide the threat.  

Key Man

With 129 caps and 54 goals, Mane is Senegal's all-time leading scorer and most capped player. His numbers from the last 10 matches tell the story. Consistently starting, producing goals and drawing fouls in dangerous areas. The World Cup has been the one trophy to elude him. A quarter-final exit in 2002 (before his time) remains Senegal's best finish. At 32, this may be Mane's last chance to change that.

One to Watch

Lamine Camara represents Senegal's future and, increasingly, their present.  The 21-year-old AS Monaco midfielder has emerged as one of African football's most exciting prospects. With Gueye now 36, Camara is being groomed as his long-term successor. But don't be surprised if he makes an immediate impact. 

Tournament Prospects 

Their opening match against France is Senegal's toughest test, but they've beaten the European giants before. Remember their famous 1-0 victory over France in the 2002 World Cup opener? Realistically, Senegal should target second place in Group I behind France, with victories over Norway and Iraq achievable. From the Round of 32, anything is possible for a team riding a wave of righteous fury. 

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World Cup Tips: How to bet Group I

To Reach the Semi Finals - France @ 13/102.30

We were tempted to tip Les Bleus to reach their third World Cup final in a row. However, as noted, they are strong contenders to win the tournament alongside Spain but the two could meet in the semi-final if both win their respective groups. There for we are opting for the slightly safer, shorter priced leg of them reaching the semi-final (and can then enjoy what would be a mouth-watering semi-final against Spain if it happens)

To Reach Quarter Finals - Norway @ 9/43.25

At a first glance, this may seem surprising, but the potential path to the QFs (assuming they finish second to France) would see them play only against South American teams. Potential matchups in R32 against Ecuador & in R16 against Brazil seems surprisingly favourable.

Interestingly, Norway boasts an impressive record against South American opposition at the World Cup, as they are unbeaten against Brazil (2W - 2D - 0L), Argentina (2W - 0D - 0L), and Colombia (2W - 0D -0L). Many critics believe this is the strongest Norwegian team we've ever seen, so the question is can Haaland and company prove it and continue the country's strong display against South American teams.

To Qualify from the Group - Senegal @ 2/51.40

This is reasonably the priced when you consider eight of the 12 third place teams will qualify. They are considered for many (rightly or wrongly) the current AFCON champions. Putting this in with the other two legs gives a treble price of around 10/111.00.

However, one over our traders thinks what might be worth a small bet is Iraq as Top AFC Team at 14/115.00.

South Korea and Japan are rightly favourites, but Iraq are available at double figures. Iraq's route is tough - France are a cut above - but Graham Arnold's side are organised, physical, and a genuine threat from set-pieces. One dead-ball goal, one shock result against Norway or Senegal, and the whole Top AFC market flips.

Important to note also, in the event of tie, such as Iraq, South Korea and Japan all exit at the Round of 32 and no other AFC team gets beyond that round, then Iraq will be paid as a winner in this tie (no dead heat here!).

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