World Cup Group F Betting Guide: Betfair traders rate Japan, Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia

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Japan

Odds to win the World Cup: 50/151.00
Odds to win Group F: 3/14.00

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Having qualified for every World Cup tournament since 1998, Japan look set for their best tournament yet. Japan have never surpassed the Round of 16 but will travel to the World Cup off the back of a successful qualifying campaign with the intent of making history.

How They Qualified

Japan had to play two qualifying rounds to reach the World Cup. In the second round, they went six-for-six against weaker opponents North Korea, Syria and Myanmar, scoring 24 goals and failing to concede. They came out on top again in the third round against stronger opposition in Australia and Saudi Arabia, winning seven games, drawing two and suffering just one defeat to the Aussies. With qualifying finishing back in May 2025, Japan have been in flying form in their friendly matches, picking up only one defeat in eight games while beating the likes of Brazil, Scotland and England.

The Manager

Hajime Moriyasu. After a historic run in Qatar, the Japan FA broke tradition by extending his contract, making Moriyasu the first manager to lead Japan in back-to-back World Cup cycles. Moriyasu deploys a high-tempo, possession-based approach that is equally dangerous in transition, using rapid passing combinations to break through defensive lines.

The Squad

Japan will play in their signature 3-4-2-1 formation, providing defensive security at the back while allowing the wing-backs the freedom to stay high and wide. Moriyasu employs a "super-sub" strategy, often changing his attacking personnel throughout matches. With quality attacking depth throughout the squad, rotation and substitutions play an influential role, allowing the attack to remain fresh and consistently threaten tiring defences.

Key Man

Takefusa Kubo. The Real Sociedad star has developed into a dangerous creative force in Spain, averaging match ratings between 7.08 and 7.16 during the 2025/26 La Liga season. Kubo's greatest asset is his low centre of gravity, which, when combined with a high footballing IQ, allows him to influence games in multiple ways. He suffered a hamstring tear in January 2026, only returning to training in early April. The Samurai Blue will be hoping he can pick up where he left off and help lead the attacking line.

One to Watch

Ayase Ueda. As Japan continue to evolve into a technically gifted and tactically disciplined side, Ueda's ability to create space in tight defensive setups and convert chances will make him a crucial focal point in attack. Entering his prime years at 27, the striker has bagged 25 Eredivisie goals this season for Feyenoord. Ueda combines traditional striker instincts with high pressing and solid link-up play, fitting perfectly into Japan's fast-paced style.

Tournament Prospects

Japan head to the World Cup as a dangerous dark horse. They are no longer a surprise package but can still be underestimated. Japan will be disappointed if they do not progress beyond the Round of 16 for the first time in their history. A quarter-final appearance would be considered a solid tournament for the Samurai Blue.

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Netherlands

Odds to win the World Cup: 14/115.00
Odds to win Group F: 4/61.67

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The Netherlands head into the 2026 World Cup carrying the familiar tag of "potentially dangerous outsiders". They are stacked with elite-level talent but are still chasing a first World Cup title after finishing runners-up in 1974, 1978 and 2010.

However, there has already been a major setback before a ball has even been kicked. Xavi Simons has been ruled out of the tournament with a serious ACL injury suffered while playing for Tottenham Hotspur.

That injury removes arguably the Netherlands' most unpredictable and versatile attacking midfielder and changes the dynamic of the squad considerably heading into the tournament.

How They Qualified for World Cup 2026

The Netherlands booked their place at the 2026 World Cup by topping qualifying Group G with an unbeaten record under Ronald Koeman. A dominant campaign included commanding wins over Malta, Finland and Lithuania as they cruised through qualification with one of the best defensive records in Europe.

The Manager

Ronald Koeman is back for his second spell in charge and has gradually transformed the Netherlands into a far more pragmatic tournament side.

Gone is some of the chaos that used to define historic Dutch teams. Koeman has prioritised structure, defensive organisation and tactical flexibility while still allowing creative freedom in attacking areas.

The concern for Koeman now is replacing the creativity and ball-carrying ability lost through Simons' injury. The Dutch boss described the injury as "dramatic" for both player and country after confirmation that the midfielder would miss the World Cup.

Still, Koeman believes this squad has enough depth to compete with the world's elite.

The Squad

Ronald Koeman's side combines experience with a new generation of technically gifted stars. Virgil van Dijk remains the defensive leader, Frenkie de Jong dictates the midfield, and Cody Gakpo provides the cutting edge in attack alongside Memphis Depay. The major absentee is Simons, but even without him, this remains one of the most balanced squads in the tournament.

Key Man

Frenkie de Jong. With Simons unavailable, even more responsibility falls on Frenkie de Jong's shoulders.

Everything good about the Netherlands tends to flow through the Barcelona midfielder. He controls the tempo, progresses the ball under pressure and links defence to attack better than almost any midfielder in international football.

If De Jong can dominate games, the Dutch can beat anyone. If opponents shut him down, they may struggle and could look surprisingly average. His importance to this squad cannot be overstated.

One to Watch / Rising Star

Ryan Gravenberch. With Simons sidelined, this tournament could become Ryan Gravenberch's moment.

The Liverpool midfielder has developed into a physically dominant, technically smooth, all-round player capable of driving through midfield and breaking lines with ease. He gives the Dutch athleticism and forward thrust that will be crucial in transition-heavy knockout matches.

Koeman may now rely on Gravenberch to provide some of the creativity and unpredictability lost through Simons' absence.

Tournament Prospects

The Netherlands still look capable of reaching the latter stages despite the injury blow.

Defensively, they are excellent. The midfield remains one of the strongest in the competition, and they possess genuine pace in wide areas. However, losing Simons removes a layer of spontaneity and flair that could have made the difference in tight knockout matches. His absence lowers their ceiling slightly.

This feels like a squad built for a quarter-final run rather than outright champions, unless something unexpected happens. They have semi-final potential if the draw falls kindly.

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Sweden

Odds to win the World Cup: 150/1151.00
Odds to win Group F: 9/25.50

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It has been a chaotic period for Sweden. Despite reaching the World Cup quarter-finals in 2018, they failed to qualify for both Qatar 2022 and Euro 2024. Their bid to reach the 2026 World Cup began poorly under Jon Dahl Tomasson, the first non-Swedish manager of the national team.

Tomasson had made a promising start to his tenure, guiding Sweden through the 2024 UEFA Nations League C group stage unbeaten. However, after collecting just one point from their opening four World Cup qualifying matches, he was dismissed and replaced by Graham Potter.

How They Qualified

Sweden endured a disastrous World Cup qualifying campaign, taking only two points from six matches and suffering an early elimination.

However, winning their group in the 2024 UEFA Nations League provided an alternative route to the tournament through the play-offs. Sweden defeated Ukraine at a neutral venue in Spain before gaining revenge over Poland, who had beaten them in the World Cup 2022 qualifying play-off final.

Viktor Gyökeres scored a dramatic winner against Poland and netted a hat-trick against Ukraine, playing a decisive role in Sweden's qualification for the World Cup.

The Manager

Graham Potter is only the second non-Swedish manager of the national team. However, he has a long history of coaching in Sweden.

In 2011, Potter was appointed manager of Östersunds FK while the club was playing in Sweden's fourth tier. He guided the club to two consecutive promotions and, after three seasons in the Superettan, secured promotion to the Allsvenskan.

During their second season in the top flight, Östersunds won the Swedish Cup and qualified for the UEFA Europa League group stage. Following the 2017/18 campaign, Potter moved to England, managing Swansea City, Brighton & Hove Albion, Chelsea and West Ham United before being appointed Sweden manager in October 2025.

The Squad

Sweden's squad is built around a core group featuring central defenders Victor Lindelöf, Isak Hien and Gustaf Lagerbielke, alongside midfielders Yasin Ayari and Jesper Karlström. Together with striker Viktor Gyökeres, they are expected to form the backbone of Sweden's starting XI at the World Cup.

Key Man

Viktor Gyökeres. Viktor Gyökeres is Sweden's most important player, and his four goals across the play-off matches were instrumental in securing qualification for the World Cup.

The striker will need to shoulder much of the attacking responsibility if Sweden are to enjoy a successful tournament.

One to Watch / Rising Star

Alexander Isak. It may seem unusual to label Alexander Isak as a player to watch following his £125 million move from Newcastle United to Liverpool at the start of the season. However, injuries have significantly disrupted his campaign.

Isak only recently returned from an injury lay-off that kept him sidelined for more than three months. After making three appearances in April, he suffered another setback, leaving him in a race against time to reach full match fitness before the start of the World Cup.

Tournament Prospects

After such a disappointing qualifying campaign, reaching the knockout stage would be considered a successful tournament for Sweden.

They will be targeting positive results against Tunisia and Japan in the group stage as they look to progress beyond the opening round.

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Tunisia

Odds to win the World Cup: 500/1501.00
Odds to win Group F: 12/113.00

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Tunisia arrive at their seventh World Cup as one of Africa's most organised sides. Ranked 44th in the world, they produced a remarkable qualifying campaign, scoring 22 goals and conceding none across ten matches.

Built around a disciplined 4-2-3-1 system and a strong defensive foundation, Tunisia have become difficult opponents to break down. They famously defeated France at Qatar 2022 and have continued to show their resilience with recent results against Brazil and Canada.

The challenge remains making history. Tunisia have never progressed beyond the group stage at a World Cup, but this generation will believe they have the structure and experience to change that.

How They Qualified

Tunisia dominated their CAF qualifying group, finishing comfortably ahead of Namibia, Equatorial Guinea, Malawi, Liberia and São Tomé and Príncipe. While the opposition was not among Africa's strongest, conceding zero goals throughout qualification was an outstanding achievement and highlighted the defensive organisation that defines this team.

The Manager

Sabri Lamouchi took charge in January 2026 after Sami Trabelsi was dismissed following Tunisia's disappointing AFCON 2025 exit. With only a few months to prepare for the World Cup, Lamouchi has largely retained Tunisia's defensive identity while looking to add more attacking threat. His early results, including a win over Haiti and a draw with Canada, suggest a cautious but disciplined approach.

The Squad

Tunisia's strength lies in their organisation and defensive solidity. Goalkeeper Aymen Dahmen enjoyed an excellent qualifying campaign behind an experienced back four led by Montassar Talbi and Dylan Bronn.

Captain Ellyes Skhiri anchors the midfield alongside new arrival Rani Khedira, while Hannibal Mejbri operates as the creative force behind the striker. Ali Abdi provides an attacking threat from left-back, and young PSG winger Khalil Ayari offers pace and unpredictability from the bench.

Key Man

Hannibal Mejbri. The Burnley midfielder is Tunisia's primary creative outlet. Operating as the team's number 10, Mejbri provides the imagination, technical quality and set-piece delivery that can unlock games. His corners and free-kicks were instrumental during AFCON 2025, and with chances likely to be limited against stronger opponents, his dead-ball quality could prove decisive.

One to Watch

Khalil Ayari. The 21-year-old PSG winger is one of the surprise inclusions in Tunisia's squad. Ayari offers pace, direct running and the ability to beat defenders in one-on-one situations. He may not start regularly, but his impact from the bench could provide the spark Tunisia need in tight matches.

Tournament Prospects

Tunisia will be underdogs in Group F but possess the defensive organisation to make life difficult for every opponent. The opening match against Sweden could be crucial in determining their fate.

Reaching the Round of 16 would be a historic achievement and represents a realistic ambition for this side. While a group-stage exit remains the most likely outcome, Tunisia have enough discipline and structure to spring a surprise if results fall their way.

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World Cup Tips: How to bet Group F

Sweden u0.5 Goals in Sweden v Tunisia @ 11/43.75

How fit will Isak be? Also, Tunisia don't concede. Ten clean sheets in 10 qualifying games, a 0-0 against Canada in their recent friendly, and just one open play goal conceded across the entirety of AFCON 2025. That defensive record doesn't happen by accident and there's no reason to think it stops against Sweden, who are not a free-scoring side at international level.

Frenkie de Jong to win the Golden Ball @ 45/146.00

The winner of the Golden Ball has to reach the Semi Final at a minimum. Netherlands are 7/24.50 to reach the Semi Final and 7/18.00 to reach the final. If they do either, then it will be largely down to the brilliant Frenkie de Jong, who at price of 45/146.00 or bigger to win the Golden Ball could be worth a small interest bet.

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