Valencia v Stoke: Decisive end to the Potters' European tour

Europa League / Michael Lintorn / 22 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

A home first-leg defeat has probably left Stoke with too much to do

"Valencia have struck four times in three of their last six home fixtures, including two of the last three, and have grabbed three or more goals in six of their last dozen in front of their ever-expectant supporters."

Stoke have exceeded the expectations of many in their first Europa League campaign, but Michael Lintorn expects the journey to conclude on Thursday...

Valencia v Stoke, Thursday 18:00, ESPN, Match odds: Valencia [1.45], Stoke [8.8], The Draw

Last week was a damaging one for the Premier League publicists, as Arsenal were outclassed by the champions of the supposedly vastly inferior Serie A and Valencia showed that there is more to La Liga than its phenomenal top two with a deserved 1-0 victory at Stoke.

Tony Pulis' side must now triumph at the Mestalla to prolong their Europa League adventure. Just two of the last 20 teams to visit have done so - Chelsea couldn't - with only Real Madrid prevailing there in the last 16 months by a score that would send the FA Cup runners-up through without needing extra time and penalties. Unsurprisingly, they are [7.8] outsiders to qualify.

Potters fans will hope that their hosts are demoralised by the 5-1 thrashing suffered against Barcelona on Sunday, however they recovered from their last loss at the Camp Nou 11 days earlier by thumping Sporting Gijon 4-0.

Similarly, any optimism that Valencia will play for a draw in the second leg, underestimating the threat of Peter Crouch and co having performed the hard task of winning the away tie, appears to lack foundation. After all, they won the first leg of their Copa del Rey quarter-final with Levante 4-1, yet still found the motivation to fire three past them in the return.

Over/under 2.5 goals

The market is fairly split as to whether this game will be high scoring after the initial encounter produced just one goal, but with Stoke chasing and Valencia looking to exploit any gaps that creates, overs is the more appealing option at around [2.05].

Unai Emery's men have struck four times in three of their last six home fixtures, including two of the last three, and have grabbed three or more goals in six of their last dozen in front of their ever-expectant supporters.

Odds of around [2.5] are available on Valencia netting in both halves, while it may prove shrewd to keep an eye on the price for them to score three or more.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ [2.05]
Other Recommended Bet: Valencia to score in both halves @ [2.5]