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UEFA Cup

UEFA Cup Final Betting: Fresh Zenit should have too much for fatigued Rangers

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Mike Norman looks at the odds ahead of the UEFA Cup final on Wednesday night

Behave yourselves! Just because the Premiership season is over doesn't mean you can go out and buy a piece of willow and turn into one of those bat and ball softies!

Between now and the 08/09 league season commencing we've got a UEFA Cup Final, a Champions League Final, FA and Scottish Cup Finals, three play-off Finals, Euro 08, the Intertoto Cup, the Amsterdam Tournament, and an invasion of England's finest club teams to far out places like China and Los Angeles...all in the name of football, oh, and in some cases, money!

First up is the UEFA Cup Final on Wednesday evening, between Zenit St Petersburg (champions of Russia) and Rangers at the City of Manchester Stadium. After being matched at a high of [250.0], Zenit are now favourites to lift the trophy at just [1.66], while Rangers, who were matched at a high of [95.0], can now be backed at [2.5] to win their second trophy of the season in their quest to win an unprecedented quadruple - they are [1.82] to win the Scottish Premiership and just [1.11] to beat Queen of the South in the Scottish Cup Final.

If you're anything like me and a fan of football, then you won't care that a big English, Italian or Spanish team won't take to the field on Wednesday, after all, this match presents some real opportunities to make a profit.

This is because at first glance, the [2.34] about Zenit St Petersburg in the 'Match Odds' market looks very tasty indeed. A closer inspection taints my confidence slightly however, with the knowledge that Pavel Pogrebnyak (Zenit's main striker and the tournament's joint top scorer) is suspended for the final. The sensible option therefore is to lay Rangers in the same market at [3.75] because I don't believe that Walter Smith's men can pull this one off - not in 90 minutes anyway. If you disagree, Rangers can be backed at [3.7] with the draw likely to be a popular choice at [3.25].

The reason I'm so heavily swaying towards a Zenit St Petersburg triumph is because of two factors. The first being their hugely impressive two-legged victory over Bayern Munich in the semi-final. To go to Munich and get a score-draw against a re-emerging Bayern team (who are 10 points clear in the Bundesliga by the way) was an achievement in itself, but to demolish them 4-0 in the return leg was simply awesome.

The second factor that should point us towards a Zenit victory is freshness. The Russian Premier League allowed Zenit to cancel some fixtures to help them prepare them for this game - the SPL didn't allow Rangers the same privilege, and it seems that every time I switch the TV on, Rangers are playing someone. Adrenalin and the occasion should give the Rangers player a boost, but if at any stage they fall behind and need to chase the game I think their recent exertions will take their toll.

What we shouldn't underestimate is Rangers' ability to defend, with David Weir and Carlos Cuellar being outstanding throughout the campaign. Out of their eight UEFA Cup fixtures, Rangers have kept six clean sheets and had four 0-0 scorelines. It would make sense to cover any Zenit win bets with the [8.0] on offer about this match finishing goalless. Favourite in the correct score market is a 1-0 ([7]) win for the Russian team, closely followed by the 1-1 draw at [7.2].

Because of the amount of times Rangers have drew a blank, a Zenit clean sheet appeals at odds of [2.52] - for Rangers not to concede you can have [3.3].

I'm sure Walter Smith will allude to Zenit's sketchy form in the group stages in the build up to kick-off, but Dick Advocaat (who spent four years at Rangers of course) has seen his side improve dramatically in this competition of late, including that win over Bayern and an impressive 4-1 away victory at Bayer Leverkusen last month. Because of Zenit's ability to score, and Rangers' ability to defend, it makes the 'Over/Under 2.5 Goals' market very difficult to predict. 'Over' is available to back at [2.56], 'Under' is [1.61] - you decide!

With Pogrebnyak absent, Rangers will have to keep a careful eye on Zenit playmaker Andrei Arshavin who will be at the heart of all his team's attacks. If you must play in the first goalscorer market, then you will do worse than back the diminutive Russian at around [9.0] once the market takes shape.

You can watch Rangers road to Manchester and Zenit's demolition of Bayern (with commentary as it should be) by clicking the links below:

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=nrP9FWGKtM8
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=-zR1y2_amKo