Europa League / Dan Fitch / 15 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Manchester City must overcome a two goal deficit when they host Hamburg in the second leg of the UEFA Cup quarter-final. Dan Ftich believes failure will result in the Mark Hughes losing his job. Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ [2.04].

If Manchester City are to get back into this tie, they need to get off to a similarly strong start as when they took the lead within a minute of the first leg. After scoring through Stephen Ireland, City found themselves on the back foot against a dominant Hamburg side and have goalkeeper Shay Given to thank that the final score was restricted to 3-1.

Hamburg's success in the Bundesliga this season has been built on the back of a strong home record. Were it not for their poor form on the road, Martin Jol's side would be flying clear at the top of the league.

Instead, Hamburg have suffered seven defeats in 14 away games in the league this season. The latest came at the weekend, when an injury time goal saw them lose 1-0 at Stuttgart, allowing league leaders Wolfsburg to open up a three point gap at the top of the table.

Yet in the UEFA Cup, Hamburg's away record has been exemplary, having recorded five wins out of five. This includes a 3-2 win at Galatasaray in the last round, in which Hamburg came back from 2-0 down.

Manchester City have enjoyed some good home form of late, winning seven straight games until Sunday's 3-1 defeat to the visiting Fulham. Mark Hughes made the decision to rest Robinho for this match, which was controversial considering that City already had Craig Bellamy and Shaun Wright-Phillips injured.

Bellamy should be back in contention on Thursday, but Wright-Phillips will miss out and Wayne Bridge is doubtful. Hamburg are without the injured defenders Guy Demel and Colin Benjamin, while Alex Silva is also a doubt.

Of Hamburg's last eight away games, seven have broken the 2.5 goals barrier. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at [1.93], with under 2.5 at [2.04].

When the goalscorer markets open on Betfair closer to kick off, expect Robinho to be priced at around [7.0] to score first and [2.7] to score anytime, with Bellamy [8.0] and [3.2]. For Hamburg, Olic will be around [9.0] and [3.5], with Guererro [10.0] and [3.6].

Manchester City are [2.14], with the draw [3.45] and Hamburg [3.95]. I think Hamburg will pick up a draw, or a defeat that is narrow enough to still progress. City are [4.1] to qualify, with Hamburg [1.3].

A 2-1 City win is [10], with 1-1 at [7.2] and 2-2 at [17.5]. Manchester City/draw is [15.5], with Hamburg/draw [17.5]. City are [3.05] to keep a clean sheet, with Hamburg [4.9].
Recommended Bets: Over 2.5 goals @ [2.04], 2-2 draw @ [17.5], Manchester City/draw at [15.5].