The Betfair Contrarian / The Betfair Contrarian / 14 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Unlike the average goldfish-brained England fan, The Contrarian is having none of this brave new dawn nonsense that currently surrounds the England team.

After the win in Croatia and victory over Kazakhstan on Saturday, England are [1.44] to win in Minsk. But Fabio Capello's side failed to produce a single shot on target in the first-half at Wembley and the flattering 5-1 scoreline was the result of a late Kazakhstan collapse. Belarus won't cave so easily. Here's why the Contrarian recommends betting against an away win...

Belarus have impressed over the past twelve months

In Belarus' last competitive home game last November, they triumphed 2-1 over a Holland side which had lost just one of their previous 24 tournament qualifying matches and who would go on to demolish Italy and France en route to the Euro 2008 quarter-finals. Since then, Belarus have lost just two of their last twelve and have recorded impressive friendly results, including home draws against Turkey and Argentina, and they came from behind to draw 2-2 away to Euro 2008 runners-up Germany. Last month they outscored England away to Andorra by winning 3-1 there (England only managed 2).

They can win without Hleb but might not have to

When Belarus coach Bernd Stange discovered star player Alexander Hleb was likely to miss this clash through injury, he said: "When someone like Hleb is injured, as he is at the moment, then the team are missing their Maradona, their Beckenbauer, their Pele." However, Belarus' win over Holland was achieved without their Pele, who went off injured with the deadlock unbroken. Worryingly for England, it now looks like Hleb will play after all because his recovery has gone better than expected. Hleb has promised: "If I play, we are going to win, if not it'll be a draw."

They have beaten England before

While Belarus's 2-1 victory at the Madejski Stadium in May 2006 was officially against an England "B" team, eleven of the players involved in that match are in the current England squad, while other big names such as Jamie Carragher, Owen Hargreaves, Joe Cole and Michael Owen also played. On that day, Belarus scored their winner with just ten men.

Scotland and Wales have struggled against them

Of the home nations, only Scotland and Wales have clashed with Belarus in competitive action. They triumphed 2-1 over Wales in September 2000 while still only ranked 100th in the world then clashed twice with Scotland in World Cup 2006 qualifying. After holding them to a 0-0 draw in Minsk they travelled to Hampden Park and triumphed 1-0 just over a month after eventual champions Italy had left Glasgow with just a point.

England have got their big win...now they put their feet up

England's 4-1 victory in Zagreb last month is comparable to the 5-1 victory away to Germany in 2001: it was the first big win for England's new foreign manager, the opposition had previously held England's number, nobody really saw it coming and it increased expectations to astronomical levels. But England's problem recently has been their tendency to ease off after winning the most important game of a qualifying campaign. After the 5-1 against Germany, qualification should have been routine but instead England needed a David Beckham masterclass and last-gasp equaliser in the home finale against a Greece side that had lost all their away games, including one to Albania.

Last year, England produced their best performance of their Euro 2008 qualifying campaign to beat Russia 3-0 at Wembley, and although they pushed the minnows Estonia out of the way straight afterwards, as soon as they faced a sterner test they folded away to Russia and at home to Croatia to ruin everyone's summer.

England will miss Ashley Cole

England have won the last seven qualifiers that Ashley Cole has started whereas the last two he missed were the 2-1 loss in Russia, where Wayne Bridge covered for him, and the 3-2 home loss to Croatia, where Joleon Lescott filled the void. With one of those two likely to step in for the injured left-back, it doesn't bode well.