Betfair Official Blog

In mid-February, Inter Milan held an 11-point lead at the top of Serie A, and there wouldn't have been many prepared to bet against Milan as the destination for another Serie A championship. But then the Nerazzurri went to Anfield and lost 2-0 in the Champions League and that, along with Roberto Mancini's aborted resignation, seems to have made them vulnerable on the home front too. They've been particularly disappointing on their travels, winning only two of their last seven away games. The reigning champions' fate is still in their own hands, however: a win in Parma this weekend will guarantee them another Scudetto; any other result coupled with three points for Roma in Catania would send the title to the Eternal City.

Inter will be hoping it's win rather than bust on Sunday afternoon - in the last decade, Big Four teams with something to play for have drawn none of their 13 final-day away games (W8-D0-L5). But they've already wasted two opportunities to put the title to bed. A fortnight ago they lost the city derby to their fiercest rivals, and they don't always bounce back in subsequent away matches (W4-D3-L1). Similarly, being held at home by Siena last week is a cause for statistical, as well as psychological, concern - the Nerazzurri are W5-D4-L1 going on the road after a draw at the San Siro.

If something's going to get the better of Inter, it's likely to be the occasion, rather than the opposition. Mancini took the reins in 2004/05, and his men are unbeaten in 27 games on the road to teams that finish in the bottom six, winning 11/13 since the start of last season. Meanwhile, Parma have built up an underwhelming W3-D4-L10 record at home to the Big Four since their 'sugar daddy's' money ran out in 2004/05 and they slipped down the league.

But the Nerazzurri's popular reputation as chokers is not entirely unfounded - they've fluffed their lines on both occasions they have been involved in a title race that went down to the wire. They went into the final game of the 2001/02 season knowing that a win would guarantee them a first Scudetto in 13 years. They lost 4-2 away to Lazio and finished third. On the last day of the 1966/67 season, they lost 1-0 in Mantova to hand the title to Juventus by a point. The last round of matches in Italy is traditionally high-scoring, even where both sides have something riding on the outcome (11/14 +2.5 goals). And Parma's Ennio Tardini stadium has already seen a lot of goals this season (12/18 +2.5 match goals). In the longer term, 12/14 games in which a Big Four guest has found the back of the net have turned up three goals or more.

In contrast, only Udinese's away games have been tighter than Inter's (2.11 Goals Per Game).

	Parma				Head to Head		Inter Milan
	Last 5 home	Last 19 home	Last 38 all	Last 5 v opp A form	Parma home	Parma all	Last 5 away	Last 19 away	Last 38 all	Last 5 v opp H form
Played	5	19	38	5	5	10	5	19	38	5
Av Match YC	4.4	4.8	5.1	5.0	4.8	5.0	5.6	4.4	4.3	5.4
Match RC	6	11	15	3	2	4	2	5	10	0
Av Team YC	2.0	2.2	2.6	2.4	2.6	2.6	2.4	1.9	1.8	2.4
Team RC	4	7	11	2	0	2	1	3	5	0
Av Opp YC	2.4	2.6	2.5	2.6	2.2	2.4	3.2	2.4	2.5	3.0
Opp RC	2	4	4	1	2	2	1	2	5	0
Av Match FG	32	34	35	67	33	40	25	34	28	44
Av Team FG	40	44	53	67	39	53	30	44	35	66
Av Opp FG	50	51	49	87	61	60	75	66	69	65
Av Match Cnrs	9.2	9.7	9.2	10.8	11.0	9.3	11.8	9.5	9.9	9.2
Av Team Cnrs	7.2	5.5	4.6	5.5	2.0	2.7	2.8	3.6	5.0	4.4
Av Opp Cnrs	2.0	4.3	4.6	5.3	9.0	6.7	9.0	5.9	4.9	4.8