Betfair Official Blog

Over their three seasons in the Premier League, Wigan - by some distance - possess the division's worst record against the Big Four with three points from 24 games - and just one from 12 at home.

Wigan's overall record against the Big Four could be misleading however, as Steve Bruce has secured all those points (W0-D3-L1). This is part of a much-improved record since he came to the JJB, with their home figures (W6-D4-L3) inferior only to last season's top five and Middlesbrough over that time.

It's worth noting also that three of their six Premier League meetings decided in the 90th minute - two last-gasp winners for Chelsea at the JJB and Emile Heskey's injury-time equaliser at Stamford Bridge last season.

Significantly however, as poor as Wigan have been against the Big Four, so Chelsea have been totally dominant against all but the league's best, winning 82% of their away matches against teams that ended up outside the top six over the past two seasons. The 73 points they have taken from those 28 games is 16 more than Manchester United (W17-D6-L5) and five better than their own total at Stamford Bridge against such sides (W20-D8-L0).

On balance, Chelsea's killer instinct on the road makes the away win impossible to overlook at 1.42. Chelsea's away wins show one of the strongest correct score trends in the division, with half of their away matches over the last two seasons (and 76% of their away wins) ending 1-0 (10/25 wins) or 2-0 (9/25) to the Blues.

There was no particularly prevalent score at the JJB last season although their home games against the Big Four show a clearer pattern with the 0-1 (4/12) the standout - and three of the four last season ending 0-1 or 0-2.

So 0-1 and 0-2 both look excellent value, accounting for half of Wigan's results at home to the Big Four and half of Chelsea's away scores over the past two seasons. With Wigan losing 11 of 12 at home to the Big Four it is unsurprising to find the D/L (four) and L/L (six) as standouts. Chelsea's away wins have invariably come with a half-time lead as well, with the win/win accounting for just under half (17/38) of their away HT/FTs over the last two seasons (68% of their wins).

Chelsea/Chelsea looks priced in at around 2.1, although if convinced of the away win it may represent some value. Wigan have kept clean sheets in six of their last eight at home (7/13 under Bruce) and in eight of their last 13 overall. However, they have blanked one of the Big Four only once in the league in 24 attempts (last season's 0-0 at home to Arsenal).

Chelsea failed to score on the road only three times in the league last season and in none of their 14 games against teams that finished outside the top six. The Blues kept a clean sheet themselves in 10 of those 14 and have done so in three quarters (21/28) of such games over the past two seasons. Wigan's six failures to score at home was the fourth-highest total in the league last season and they have failed to register in two thirds of their games against the Big Four at the JJB.

At around evens, the Chelsea clean sheet looks far too long.