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Against the Big Four, Everton have lost roughly two thirds (W6-D11-L33) of their league matches under David Moyes, taking one point from eight games last season. They have fared little better at home in that time, putting together a W6-D2-L16 record, including five straight defeats at Goodison.

Liverpool's away record under Rafa Benitez is the weakest of the Big Four, where they have won less than 40% (W31-D19-L28). The Reds away form has improved since the start of last season (W10-D8-L3) but they have still struggled to beat teams that have finished in the top half of the table (W2-D5-L2), and have already drawn at Villa this season. This Spaniard has lost over half his career away Liverpool matches against top half teams (W8-D9-L19).

Of the Reds' two victories last season against top-half finishers, one was in this fixture - although that was heavily assisted by some questionable refereeing from Mark Clattenburg.

Still, Liverpool have dominated recent derbies, with Benitez owning a W5-D1-L2 record (W2-D0-L2 at Goodison) to Moyes's W2-D3-L7 (W2-D0-L4). Everton have finished in the top half in the last two seasons, on both occasions they outplayed the Reds in this fixture. Liverpool have by far the worst win rate of the Big Four away to top half teams but Everton have not fared well against the Big Four generally. This market is probably best avoided. Since the start of last season, Liverpool's most common away result has been 0-0 (5/21), accounting for four of their nine games against top-half finishers and their game at Villa recently.

There has been no particularly common score at Goodison in that time, 1-0 and 3-1 have been the most frequent at 3/21. Everton have lost their last three games against the Big Four 1-0. 1Everton may not have enjoyed much success against the Big Four in recent times but they have done well in the first half. In the last two seasons they have trailed at the break in only three of their 16 games (HT W6-D7-L3). They have led at half-time in five of the eight at Goodison but went on to lose four of them.

Over the last two seasons, Liverpool have had just four half-time leads away to top-half finishers, with the L/L (seven) and D/D (four) the most common results. Against Everton away they trailed at half-time in both recent matches.

On that basis, Liverpool/Liverpool looks far too short at 3.65 and, given Everton's recent history, Everton/Liverpool is a tempting speculative option at 30. Everton have kept seven clean sheets in their 21 home games dating back to the start of last season but they have managed just one in their last eight at home in the league - against Derby - and only five in 25 home matches against the Big Four under David Moyes (all wins).

Liverpool have struggled to break down top-half sides, having failed to score in six of nine such games last season (7/21 overall since the start of the last campaign). 'Yes' looks better value at 4.2 but not by much. Portsmouth's 3-0 win in the last game at Goodison was only the fourth time in Everton's last 30 home league matches the Toffees have been kept off goalless, having scored against Big Four opponents on four of six occasions in that time.

The Reds have managed only one clean sheet in their last eight trips across Stanley Park, although they have kept 11 in their 21 away matches since the start of last season and in four of nine away to last season's top-half finishers. As with many of these markets, the conflicting trends make this too close to call.

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