Betfair | Premiership Betting: Spurs - not quite "home bankers" but great value at the Lane

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Premiership Betting: Spurs - not quite "home bankers" but great value at the Lane

Andrew Atherley tells us why Spurs are just as consistent as the Big 4 when it comes to picking up three points at home, and much better value to do so. One of the hallmarks of the big four's domination of the Premier League is their high percentage win rates at home against the rest of the division.

In the past four seasons, at home to teams from outside the big four, Liverpool's win rate has been 78%, with 76% for Manchester United, and Chelsea and Arsenal close behind on 75%. The problem, as every punter knows, is that those figures rarely translate into backable odds.

Imagine, then, that there was a team capable of delivering a home win percentage close to the level achieved by the big four, yet whose odds rarely dipped as low as that win percentage implied. And, moreover, that team had delivered that high win percentage for most of the past four years.

That team is no figment of the imagination, however, because that team is Tottenham Hotspur. Much-maligned, supposedly unreliable Tottenham Hotspur, the fancy dans who are all style and no substance.

For those prepared to ignore that kind of stereotyping, backing Spurs at home to teams from outside the big four has been one of the most profitable 'systems' bets of recent seasons.

Since November 2004, when Martin Jol took over from Jacques Santini, Tottenham's home win home win in that category has been 68% - equivalent to odds of [1.46]. Yet for most of that period they have been available at better odds than [1.46] - even, incredible as it now seems, for their 4-0 win over dismal Derby early last season.

What has made the market for Spurs backers, of course, is that away results are often disappointing and the club is prone to moments of crisis, pushing up their odds for home matches as the vultures start to circle.

Just the kind of scenario that has unfolded this season, in fact, with Tottenham lying second-bottom of the Premier League at this early stage. Again, their home form needs to come to the rescue, with four of their next six league games at White Hart Lane, starting with the visit of Aston Villa on Monday night.

Taking the longer-term view, Tottenham should be confident of picking up plenty of points at the Lane. From the start of Jol's reign to the end of the 2004-05 season, Tottenham won eight and drew three out of 12 at the Lane, with their only defeat coming against champions Chelsea. In the following two seasons, when Spurs finished fifth both times, they won 12 out of 19 at home each season, but their home win rate against teams from outside the big four was an incredibly high 77% - equivalent to odds of [1.30] - across those two seasons.

Last season Tottenham's number of home wins slipped to eight out of 19, but the figures do not tell the whole story. Spurs' form suffered from early-season uncertainty over Jol's position but, just as in the 2004-05 season when there was a previous change of manager, results picked up once Juande Ramos was brought in to replace the Dutchman.

Tottenham won five of their first seven home league games under Ramos, leading up to their Carling Cup final win over Chelsea, and then won two of their next three home games as well (the exception being the 4-4 draw with Chelsea). Their form slipped towards the end of the season, however, arguably due to Ramos feeling it was job done for his first season, having qualified for Europe. Their last four home games brought two draws and two defeats, and this season started no better with a 2-1 defeat by Sunderland in their first home game.

The question for punters is whether Spurs can recapture their previous excellent home form. Part of the answer lies in whether their results last spring can be put down to the 'non-trier' factor after their Carling Cup win, but part may also lie in Ramos's previous exploits with Sevilla, a team with a remarkably similar profile to Tottenham.

Under Ramos, Sevilla's home win percentage in La Liga was 69%, yet their away form was nothing special - they lost more games on the road than they won, and they were victorious in just two of Ramos's last 13 away games. Like Tottenham, Sevilla's away record against the elite teams was nothing short of atrocious, yet they consistently and thrillingly raised their game at home.

One plus for Spurs is that, in their first home game of the season against Sunderland, they had 18 shots at goal, including 11 on target, which was exactly the same as Chelsea had at home to Portsmouth on the opening weekend. The difference was that Chelsea won 4-0, while Tottenham lost 2-1.

Even though the negative from the Sunderland match was that Spurs' defence was badly exposed, long-term results analysis shows that a team with a high shot ratio will turn that attacking play into goals, and wins, eventually.

On past evidence, Spurs will be good value to prove the point against Villa on Monday, and in their subsequent home games against Wigan, Hull and Bolton.

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