Betfair | Premiership Betting: Finding value in the Premiership points market

StatsOnSport

All Sports

Premiership Betting: Finding value in the Premiership points market

"Magical" Matthew Walton studies the Premiership total points market and explains to us how we should go about getting involved. We're impatient, us backers. No sooner have we seen a couple of games in a new season and we're already thinking about the far off prospects of promotion and relegation. It's barely been three weeks since we started this new season and already we're beginning to wish it away in order to (hopefully) collect on a decent ante-post wager!

But that's the beauty of the football markets on Betfair these days. They cater for every conceivable preference. Not only can you bet on what is going to happen, you can also speculate on when it will happen as well - by the minute, the half, the match or the season - and you can even re-evaluate your position as time passes and alter your bet to suit any short or long-term factors effecting the market.

This discussion puts these ideas together - our natural desire to forecast the future added to the variety and flexibility of markets we can find on the exchange.

We're looking at markets such as Premier League Points, Finishing Positions, Month End Top & Bottom - these sort of markets. Medium and long-term opportunities where we can use a bit of common sense and statistical study to give ourselves the vital edge over our rivals.

For the purposes of this exercise we'll look at the Premier League Points market but the same logic applies to those other markets as well.

Let's begin with a topical example like Newcastle United. The current market forecast for their seasonal points haul is hovering around 48-49. This means we can either 'sell' their seasonal points total at 48 (i.e. we think they will collect less than 48 points during the campaign) or we can 'buy' their position at 49 (i.e. we believe KK might just stay and deliver the goods ... well, it could happen!).

The total points market is a spread market, the same as bookings or corners, for example. Will they or won't they do what you think they will do - and if in Newcastle's case it's exactly 48 or 49 points, depending upon your choice, then it counts as a tie and all bets are off.

If you buy their total points at say £1 a point, then you will be paid out £1 for every point they get above 49. If you buy at 49 and they end up with less than 48 points, you lose a pound for every point below 48 that Michael Owen and co end the season with. Similarly, If you sell their total points at £1 a point you'll win a quid for every point below 48 that they end up with.

So, we understand the premise. Now, as diligent backers, we head for the formbooks and lateral-thinking classes.

Going back to Newcastle, we see their 10 Year Trend averages out at 53.3. So, a possible buy we might conclude given their current buy mark of 49. Well, maybe, but that only tells half the story. From 2003-04 to 2007-08 the average points total for United is actually 48.8, it's the previous 5 year period from 1998-99 to 2002-03 which makes up the shortfall as back then Newcastle averaged 57.8 points per season - a full 9 points a season higher.

Conversely, Arsenal have an average of 77.7 throughout this period which is much more evenly distributed. A couple of poor years recently but in the last 5 years they averaged 78.2 points and in the 5 years prior to that is what 77.2. One might see them as a more stable club which causes a more even pattern of performance and, in this example, probably a lesser chance of a decent trade (long-term anyway).

Then you have a side like West Brom, one of the lesser lights of the section (with all due respect) who represent a fascinating bunch of sides. Those newly promoted or those deemed to be unfashionable who can surprise both for their over as well as under achievement.

Over the last 10 years we've seen promoted sides peak at a high of 58 points (Sunderland 1999-00) but dip to a low of 26 points (West Brom in 2003-04).

Now you might think, a swing of 32 points during the last decade, there must be some fantastic trading potential on these smaller clubs. Yes, there is but what about the Newcastles of this world? They've hit 71 points in 2001-02 and dropped to just 43 points in each of the last two seasons. That's a 28 point swing by just one club during this period!

Arsenal, the steady Gunners, totalled a championship winning 90 points in 2003-04 but were down to 67 in 2005-06. That's a 23 point drop in two seasons by a supposedly established, top four club.

It's quite clear there are major plays to be had on seasonal points totals. Whether down to external investment, player transfers, managerial changes, ground moves or whatever, clubs fortunes (thankfully for us as both fans and backers) do ebb and flow. For every Hull City, there's a Bradford City.

Furthermore, look at it this way, Newcastle in their three games have already played Manchester United and Arsenal away from home and Bolton at home. Four points returned from three fixtures where last year they only got a single point from the same three matches. Therefore, are they ahead of schedule and destined to get more points this year? Also, with trips already to Old Trafford and the Emirates they have faced harder away games than most of their rivals. Again, a sign that a better season may await the Toon.

Their next few matches are Hull City (H), West Ham (A), Spurs (A) and Blackburn (H). Not the hardest sequence of games you could imagine. Another chance to buy at 49? And if Keegan stays, that must be a further boost to their chances.

The same applies for Arsenal or West Brom. External factors always have a bearing on sides such as player injuries or purchases, absences for the likes of the African Cup of Nations (not every season though), congested fixture lists, a whole range of possibilities.

You may choose to back a side (buy them), you may prefer to go against them (sell them), the choice is yours. What these kind of markets all present are chances to think, and bet, beyond the next match. Test your predictive skills to the highest level.

Do consider these markets as they offer a distinct advantage to the informed backer - something we all try to be. Maybe try your hand at the Monthly Top & Bottom markets and then consider further bets in the seasonal options.

You'll be surprised what great bets you can find on Betfair if you're prepared to look ... and be patient.

Digg It