Betfair Official Blog

Fulham were one of four clubs last season (also Derby, Everton and Sunderland) to fail to take a point from their home matches against the Big Four. Indeed, they've suffered 14 defeats in their 20 Big Four home games over the last five seasons at Craven Cottage - the most by any Premier League team over that period.

If that wasn't bad enough, Fulham have a significantly worse record at the Cottage against teams, like Arsenal, coming off a win (W3-D5-L10; W0-D0-L5 against the Big Four), comparing very poorly to their competitive record against visitors who failed to pick up three points in their previous match (W9-D7-L4; W2-D0-L1 against the Big Four).

This is mirrored by the Gunners over the same time-frame, winning 11/21 (W11-D8-L2) on the road following a win - compared to 6/19 (W6-D3-L8) after dropping points.

Bear in mind also, that since the start of 2007, Arsenal have lost only twice away to non-Big Four teams in the league - only Chelsea have lost fewer - winning 52% of these games (W12-D9-L2) in that time. All things considered, we think Arsenal are right to be priced in, but could be even shorter. There are few discernable correct score patterns here. Fulham's home games against the Big Four over the last five seasons shows nothing we can rely on, with 0-3, 1-2 and unquoted (three each) the most common scores.

Over that same period, Arsenal's games against bottom-half finishers also show no particular tendency, with 1-0 and 0-1 most common (both 3/20). Nothing to advise in this market. Last season, just under half (7/16) of Arsenal's away matches against non-Big-Four teams were won at both half and full-time. In fact, evidence of Arsenal's strong second-half performances, the next most common result was the reverse Loss/Win double (3/16) - the rest of the league combining for only eight of those on the road all season.

Over their past 20 games at home to the Big Four, unsurprisingly, the Loss/Loss (seven) and Draw/Loss (five) account for 60% of Fulham's HT/FTs. Arsenal only failed to score twice, home and away, over the whole of last season - the fewest in the league - and the Cottagers have managed to keep just four clean sheets in 28 home games against the Big Four - including none of seven against Arsenal.

In fact, over the last two seasons, Fulham have kept out only three of their 20 top-half visitors. Short as it is, we think there's some value in the Fulham 'No'. Fulham have failed to score in seven of their last 20 home games against top-half finishers (five of 10 last season) as well as eight of 20 at home to the Big Four over the last five seasons (including the last three in a row).

Derby are the only team to score against Arsenal in their last five games, although the Gunners' five clean sheets on the road last season was good enough to rank them only seventh - and well below the 50% rate of the other Big Four sides. A well-priced market, we think No carries any available value.