Betfair Official Blog

Community Shield Statistical Preview: Stats point to another United success

Click here to view market

"Magical" Matthew Walton crunches the stats to find the best bets out there as Portsmouth and Man Utd clash in the season curtain-raiser that is the Community Shield. It was Brian Clough, was it not, who said the most important thing about the Charity Shield (as it was then known) wasn't winning the match but simply qualifying for it. After all, a side's presence in the annual curtain-raiser is a de facto sign of success as they must be either FA Cup winners or Premier League champions.

Hence we see Manchester United and Portsmouth opening the top-flight season at Wembley, both looking to build upon a successful end to the last campaign.

And barely having time to draw breath after last season's domestic finale, the dramatic Champions League final in Moscow and Euro 2008 we, as backers, are once again reaching for the formbook in order to start earning our regular football crust.

Many may deride this match as little more than a pre-season friendly but there is enough at stake, and more than enough form in the book, to give us a good statistical basis from which to approach the Betfair markets and, as we say, 'the more we know, the more we can win'.

The table below illustrates some general points about the Community Shield and provides a few basic facts about the coming match :-

What we see is a dominance of the 'Big Four' in recent years with Manchester United (6), Arsenal (4), Liverpool (2) and Chelsea (2) the most successful teams. In fact, there are only seven different sides included in the last 15 finals (Blackburn, Newcastle and the 1995 winners, Everton, being the other three competitors).

Of encouragement to Portsmouth fans, we've seen the FA Cup winners land the trophy on 4 occasions (1995, 2000, 2001, 2006).

As regards Manchester United, the winners of the Premier League have won 6 times (1993, 1997, 2003, 2004, 2005 & 2007).

There have been 4 wins by the double-winners (1994, 1996, 1998 & 2002) and we also have a fly in the ointment with Arsenal in 1999. The Gunners had won neither trophy the previous season (as Manchester United had won the double).

The last goalless draw came in 1991 between Arsenal and Spurs and 4 of the last 15 matches have gone to penalties (1993, 1997, 2003 & 2007) of which, curiously, Manchester United have won every time!!

Manchester United v Portsmouth, head-to-head statistics (last 10 years) :- P13 - Manchester Utd won 8 (61%) - Portsmouth won 4 (31%) - 1 draw (8%) Manchester Utd scored 24, Portsmouth scored 11

Using this wealth of information we can turn our attention to the upcoming match itself and study several of the markets available on Betfair - the outright result, the over/under 2.5 goals, the HT result and the HT/FT market.



Outright Result,

Manchester United [1.64] seem a tad overpriced given (a) their record in this competition (b) the general record of League winners compared to FA Cup winners and (c) their head-to-head record with Portsmouth.

If anything, purely on the statistics, Sir Alex Ferguson's side could very well be shorter. No doubt the absence of Ronaldo and Rooney has had some effect on this market.

As for Pompey, they too are big at [6.4]. Harry Redknapp's side have won 4 of the 13 recent encounters, a fact which should make them nearer to [3.5] than [6.5]!

Why is the market so out of line with the data? Simple. The draw at [3.95] is broadly in line with the Community Shield trend which has seen 4 draws in the last 15 runnings - 26% or [3.75] - however these two sides have drawn just one of their last 13 meetings (8%).

So, in selecting your play, do you go with the head-to-head form or the match form? Preference would be with the two sides and so laying the draw is probably the best bet after a United win.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

The last 13 meetings of the two sides have seen 8 matches go higher than 2.5 goals (none of the three matches last season though). That would equate to 53% or a price around [1.88].

The Community Shield itself has had the over in 8 of the last 15 years (10 of the last 20 years going further back). This would make for a mark nearer to [2.0].

Put these two together and the logical view would be that a 'tipping point' of the market would be somewhere around [1.90] if you wanted to back either way. Currently the 'under' stands at [1.80] and the 'over' at [1.90].

Again this may well reflect last season's meetings and the loss of two potent scoring threats for United. Ultimately, the market will determine your play or you may prefer to back the more solid, if shorter, option on the 'over 1.5 goals' market.

HT Result

The last 15 Shields have produced 8 draws at HT - 53% or [1.88].

The last 13 meetings of these two sides, spread over the last 10 years, have seen United lead at HT on 8 occasions with Portsmouth leading at the break in 2 matches and just 3 draws.

Again, we see conflicting figures between the match history and the two sides head-to-head record. Which way to go? As above, it must be the sides themselves who determine the play.

The chances are the draw will be put in pretty short and as such Portsmouth and, more likely, United will be the value. United at anything better than [1.70] would merit a second glance.

HT/FT Result

We've not seen much of a turnaround in Manchester United/Portsmouth fixtures over the years.

The side leading at HT - 10 of 13 matches - has never lost (and only once have they even been pegged back to a draw). Manchester United have done the HT/FT double 7 times, Pompey have doubled up twice and there's been one United-Draw result.

Add to this the fact that only two sides in the last 15 Shields have won after failing to score first and the view must be that the HT score may not tell who will win in 90 minutes ... but it will tell you who won't!

As such, the double United result [2.54] is big, given the available data. Other options like Draw/Draw [6.2] and even Draw/United [4.8] are poorer value. For Portsmouth backers, your best option would be Draw/Portsmouth at [13.5].

Overall a pretty tough match to analyse as the head-to-head form and match data don't sit too well together. The research shows that strictly on the figures, it's Manchester United who are the value call - however, as backers, we must factor in the team news. Ronaldo and Rooney have clearly sent a shockwave through the markets.

In all, a fascinating match to start a great betting season on Betfair!

Digg It

Benefits and offers

Services

Radio        Live Video