Betfair Official Blog

Villa have saved their Big Four best for Chelsea in recent times, not losing to the Blues at Villa Park in six years (3W-3D) - but failing to beat any of their other 18 Big-Four visitors over that time (W0-D5-L13 v Man U, Arsenal and Liverpool).

Indeed, Benitez's Reds have shown increasing reliability away to non-Big Four teams of late, winning 10 of their last 17 (W10-D5-L2) since the beginning of last season and four of their last five. What's more, on the back of their last 23 home wins, Liverpool have won 16 of their next away games (W16-D2-L5).

We think the Liverpool win price should be closer to even money - and at 2.6, think it definitely holds some value. Since 2002/03 - and excluding games against Chelsea - eight of Villa's 11 home losses to Big Four opposition have finished 0-1 (4) or 0-2 (4). With Benitez at the helm, all eight of Liverpool's away wins against top-half non Big Four teams have come by a single goal, with an even split of 1-0 and 2-1 score-lines. On this basis - and it's not the strongest of patterns - Liverpool to win 1-0 looks the value outcome (currently 9). Last season, only Derby and Reading suffered more loss/loss results at home than Villa's four - three coming against the Big Four - making it Villa's most common HT/FT result at home to the division's elite over the last five seasons (9/20).

Neatly, three quarters of the Reds' last 24 away wins have come win/win -Liverpool converting all but two of their away half-time leads under their Spanish manager.

Bear in mind also that the last 10 league games at Villa Park have seen a 4:1 second : first half goal ratio (28 and seven respectively) with all but one of them producing more goals after the break.

Liverpool display a similar trend with 15 second-half goals in their last seven league games - compared to two in the first half. Their last away game that saw more first-half goals was back in April 2007. Villa have kept just two clean sheets in their last 15 home Premier League matches and since O'Neill took charge, have managed to blank a Big Four opponent only three times in 16 attempts home and away. On top of this, Liverpool have failed to score in only 4/17 games against non Big-Four sides since the beginning of last season - making the Villa clean sheet (4.1) look a little short. Villa have scored in 11 of their 16 games against Big-Four opponents since O'Neill took over, including in all four of the games at Villa Park last campaign. With Rafa at the helm, against non Big Four top-half, Liverpool have kept only eight clean sheets in 22 games away from Anfield.