Stats / Bettorlogic / 15 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Bettorlogic provide the stats to help you make the right picks on a relegation six pointer. Best Bet: Back Sunderland win @ 1.94.

Match Odds

When these two sides met just before Christmas at the KC Stadium Hull were in sixth, having lost just four of 17 matches, with Sunderland's 4-1 win in that game lifting the Black Cats out of the relegation zone and starting a W1-D4-L10 run for the Tigers. Defeat this time around could plunge Sunderland back in to the relegation zone or drag Hull closer to the danger zone.
Hull's strength this season has been their away record, which is still the best outside the top six (W5-D5-L6). Five of those six defeats have come in their last seven though, a period in which they have scored just three times, after netting 17 in their first nine on the road. They have lost only two of seven at the current bottom-half sides (W2-D3-L2) but those are their last two such games, including the 3-1 loss at the Riverside last weekend.

Sunderland were excellent last season against the bottom-half finishers at the Stadium of Light, going W7-D2-L0 and, while they haven't been able to keep up that pace this season, they have won half (W4-D1-L3) of their games against the current bottom-half sides. That includes a W2-D1-L0 mark under Ricky Sbragia and, excluding games against the Big Four, Sunderland have gone W3-D2-L2 at home since Roy Keane's departure.
Perhaps most favourable for Sunderland is a historical perspective, with home sides winning roughly two thirds (W13-D5-L2) of games between two bottom-six teams not in the relegation zone in the final 10 games of a Premier League season -- so the home win ([1.94]) looks the best option.

Correct score

Since their promotion, the 2-0 win and 2-1 loss (both 5/28) have been the most common scores in Sunderland's home games against non-Big Four teams, with nearly a quarter (4/17) of their games at home to bottom-half finishers and this season's bottom half ending 2-0 to the home side.

No score stands out for Hull on the road, although the 2-0 loss has been the joint-most common, -- including in two of their last five on the road to non-Big Four sides -- so may be worth small stakes at [10.5].

HT/FT

All but one of Hull's defeats on the road this season have been L/Ls and that is easily the most common double result for them at non-Big Four teams this season (4/12). Only one of Sunderland's wins this season at home has been a W/W though, with the other four coming after a drawn first half.

Sunderland clean sheet

Sunderland have kept five clean sheets at home to non-Big Four sides this season, four of which have come in their seven games under Sbragia and they have not conceded in any of his three games in charge at home to current bottom-half teams. Over a longer period, they have blanked just under half (8/17) of visiting bottom-half finishers from last season and the bottom-half sides this season.

As mentioned earlier, Hull scored 17 times in their first nine away games this season -- netting in all of them -- but have scored just three goals in seven games since (failing to score in four of them). All of which suggests some value in the Sunderland clean sheet at [2.48], although it should be noted that the Tigers have scored in each of their seven at bottom-half teams this season.

Hull clean sheet

Hull have kept four clean sheets on the road this season -- including two in their last four -- but only one in their seven at bottom-half teams. Sunderland have failed to score in only two of their 17 equivalent home matches since their promotion, as well as in just one of their eight at the Stadium of Light under Sbragia.