Stats / Bettorlogic / 21 May 2009 / Leave a comment

After weeks of poor form the Black Cats find themselves right in the mire on the final day of the season. Can they guarantee their top flight survival against Guus Hiddink's men? Best Bet: Back 0-1 @ 8.2 & 0-2 @ 10.5 (split stakes).

Match Odds

Sunderland missed the opportunity to avoid the last-day trauma by losing at Fratton Park on Monday night and now face a visit from Chelsea, playing their last league game under Guus Hiddink. Sunderland's record against the Big Four (W0-D2-L13, W0-D1-L6) since their promotion suggests they may need help from Manchester united and/or Aston Villa to ensure top-flight football next season.

Indeed, their record at the Stadium of Light against all top-half sides -- W3-D3-L13 -- makes the away win price ([2.0]) look rather generous. Chelsea's staggering away record against bottom-half sides in the same period (W18-D1-L0) and in the Abramovich era (W48-D8-L3) only serves to reinforce the challenge facing the Black Cats.

There is some encouragement for home fans, however. In the Premier League era only two
sides threatened with relegation have lost at home on the last day of the season to a side with nothing to play for, going W11-D4-L2. Three of the games in that sample of 17 were against the Big Four, with only one of the sides (W1-D1-L1) managing a victory.

The two teams' respective form figures suggest the [2.0] on offer for a Chelsea win is far too long and, while there is some evidence to favour Sunderland in the final day history, the professionalism shown by Guus Hiddink's side down the stretch is probably enough to mitigate such concerns.

Correct score

All of the Blues' games at the other nine bottom-half teams this season have resulted in a Chelsea win to nil, with 2-0 (4/9) the most common. Going further back, in the Abramovich era, more than of their games at bottom-half teams have ended either 1-0 or 2-0 half (both 15/59).
Sunderland have failed to score in 12 of their 15 games (home and away) against the Big Four since their promotion, suffering three 1-0 defeats (five losses to nil) in seven games at home against them. Against all top-half sides in that time, 0-1 (5/19) and 1-2 (4/19) have been the most common scores at the Stadium of Light. Another win to nil for Chelsea looks extremely likely, with 1-0 ([8.2]) and 2-0 ([10.5]) both definitely worth interest.

HT/FT

While they have been poor against top-half sides at home since their return to the top flight, Sunderland's first-half record against them (W4-D8-L7) hasn't been too bad, with five D/Ls to seven L/Ls. Against the Big Four however, the L/L dominates, with five of their seven games ending that way.

Chelsea have recorded 12 W/Ws in 19 games away to bottom-half teams in that period and have pulled off the double result in over half (31/59) of such games dating back to the 2003/04 season. Chelsea/Chelsea ([3.3]) looks the only way to go here.

Sunderland clean sheet

Chelsea have scored in all 19 of their games at bottom-half teams in the last two seasons and in all but five of 59 such matches in the Abramovich era. Sunderland have kept one clean sheet in 15 meetings with the big Four since the start of last season and none in their seven at home. Against all top-half sides, in that time they have managed just two clean sheets in 19 games and there seems no reason why they will add to that tally here.

Chelsea clean sheet

As mentioned earlier, Chelsea haven't conceded in any of their nine games at bottom-half teams this season and have done so in just three of 19 since the start of the last campaign. Sunderland have managed to score in only three of their 15 games against the Big Four (two of seven at home) and have also netted just five times in their 12 games against all sides (home and away) in the last three months. 'Yes' also looks excellent value at [2.88].