Stats / Bettorlogic / 10 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Bettorlogic crunch the numbers as Newcastle, desperately in need of three points, travel to a Stoke City side who can go a long way to guaranteeing their own survival shoud they win. Best bet: Back Draw/Stoke @ [6.6].

Match Odds

Shearer's reign on Tyneside got off with more of a whimper than a bang and the latest Geordie Messiah now has only seven games remaining to save Newcastle. A win here would go a long way to helping that cause, and with Sunderland facing United at home earlier in the day, could well lift them out of the relegation zone. While the three points are not perhaps quite as crucial for the home side, they would go a long way to securing a second season of Premier League football.

The good news for Potters fans is that the form book says they should get them. Only the Big Four have lost fewer times at home than Stoke this season, with their haul of 28 points from 15 games (W8-D4-L3) the seventh-best in the division. By contrast, Newcastle have won just twice on the road all season, four times in 33 since their opening day win at the Reebok last season and have lost nearly 60% of their away matches (31/53) since the start of the 06/07 campaign.

The one thing in Newcastle's favour is that almost all of their positive results have come at bottom-half sides, going W3-D3-L3 against bottom-half finishers last season and W2-D2-L3 at the current bottom-half teams this. Still, that hardly justifies their [3.05] win price and, when you factor in Stoke's W6-D3-L0 record hosting the teams outside the top six, three points for Tony Pulis's men looks the best value at [2.64].

Correct score

Four of those nine games at the Britannia Stadium have finished 1-0 (only one of their eight home wins this season has been by more than a goal), with 0-0 (twice) the only other score to occur more than once there this season.

Newcastle's away figures are similar, with just two of eight defeats coming by a margin of two or more goals (both 3-0). Their form is dominated by the 2-1 loss (4/15) rather than 1-0, but those two scores may be worth covering -- at [11.0] and [9.4], respectively -- as a longer-priced alternative to the Stoke win.

HT/FT

Newcastle's record away to bottom-half teams shows an extremely strong half-time draw trend (HT W2-D12-L2 since the start of last season), with the D/L (5/16) and D/D (4/16) the most common double results.

Stoke have scored over three quarters (24/31) of their goals after the break and so share the half-time draw tendency (HT W2-D6-L1 at home to teams from outside the top six this season). This has produced four D/Ws in the nine-game sample and Draw/Stoke looks excellent value ([6.6]).

Stoke clean sheet

After conceding seven goals in their first three home games of the season, Stoke have allowed just six in their subsequent 12 at the Britannia Stadium, recording seven clean sheets -- including six in nine against non-top six teams.

Newcastle do not often fail to score on the road though, doing so in just six of 27 at non-Big Four teams since the start of last season, although that does include three in seven at the bottom-half this term. On balance the Stoke clean sheet probably does offer value at [3.3] but is not strongly recommended.

Newcastle clean sheet

Like their own attacking record, clean sheets have been rare (4/27) for the Magpies at non-Big Four sides since the start of last season but have been more common (2/7) in their games at bottom-half sides this season. Stoke have scored in 10 of 11 at home to non-Big Four sides, including all seven hosting bottom-half teams.