Premier League Stats: Liverpool v Chelsea

Stats / Bettorlogic / 31 January 2009 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

BettorLogic crunch the numbers ahead of Sunday's title six-pointer at Anfield.

Match Odds
Liverpool (W3-D7-L0) and Chelsea (W4-D4-L2) have both faltered at the wrong time, giving up 10 points to United over their last 10 games (as well as eight to Villa and three to Arsenal), leaving both sides in need of a win.

Recent history suggests it is unlikely to be the Blues, having won only six of their 26 Big Four clashes (in all competitions) since the start of the 06/07 campaign, and none at all (W0-D4-L5) on the road. Liverpool have started to punch their weight in these games -- undefeated in their last eight against the Big Four -- although the majority of their recent results have been draws (W3-D8-L3 since the start of last season).

Since Chelsea's last win at Anfield, in October 2005, Liverpool have lost just twice in 65 home games -- both to Man Utd -- adding further doubt to Chelsea's hopes. The Blues' incredible away start (nine straight wins) had papered over the cracks of their problems. Over the past two seasons, Chelsea lost half of their games against top-six finishers (W2-D3-L5), as they have against this season's current top six (W0-D0-L1).

An away win looks unlikely; although a lay at [3.3] does not appeal greatly -- so backing the stalemate ([3.25]) looks the best option.

Correct score
Liverpool have been failing to convert draws into wins lately, with three 1-1s in their last six in the league and the 0-0 (3/11) the most common score at Anfield this season. Eight of their last 14 against the Big Four have ended even, with seven of those finishing one apiece (both 3/6 at Anfield).

Six of Chelsea's 15 Big Four games have finished 1-1 since the start of last season, with all four of their draws on the road since 06/07 being 1-1 and at [7.0] it looks like value.

HT/FT
Chelsea's recent first-half record at the Big Four is atrocious, trailing in all nine at the break since 06/07, with five L/Ls and four L/Ds. Liverpool have drawn 11 of their last 15 first halves at home in the league, with five D/Ds and six D/Ws. Against the Big Four, they have led at half-time in six of their last 10 at home, recording three W/Ds.

Liverpool's recent home form does not offer much support for it but the other trends point towards Liverpool/Draw ([18.5]).

Liverpool clean sheet
The Reds have one of the best defensive records in the league but they have consistently struggled to keep clean sheets against their major rivals, managing just four in 25 games since the start of the 06/07 campaign (in all competitions), although of their two in 12 home games, both were against Chelsea. The Blues have failed to net in three of their last four and five of their last eight at the Big Four, as well as in five of their last six at top-six finishers (including this season's current top half).

Chelsea clean sheet
Liverpool have failed to score in just two of 15 at home against the Big Four (in all competitions) while Chelsea have kept only three clean sheets away to the Big Four in 23 games since Abramovich took over. 'No' ([1.39]) has to be the call here.