Stats / Bettorlogic / 15 May 2009 / Leave a comment

West Brom continue to try to recreate their "Great Escape" from a few years ago and will have to get something from their match against Liverpool if they are to stand any sort of chance. Bettorlogic talk us through the numbers as we go in search of value.

Match Odds

Two wins in three games have rekindled West Brom's improbable survival hopes, leaving them just three points from safety at the start of the weekend. The final visitors to the Hawthorns this season are a Liverpool side who, in all likelihood, will have nothing more than holding off Chelsea for second place to play for.

West Brom's two recent wins (over Sunderland and Wigan) are their first back-to-back triumphs at home since the turn of the year -- a run that was halted by a 5-0 demolition by Man Utd. Indeed, the Baggies have struggled to put up any sort of challenge against the top sides in the division this season, losing all of their other 11 games against the top six, including an aggregate score of 1-21 against the Big Four.

Liverpool have won four in a row on the road for the first time in three years and, given their W17-D3-L3 record at bottom-six teams over the last four seasons, will fancy their chances of making it five on the trot. In addition, teams in the relegation zone at home to the Big Four in the final five games of the season have gone W1-D1-L7 in the Abramovich (03/04 - present) era -- including a West Brom defeat to an Arsenal side resigned to second place in the 04/05 campaign. Everything points to a Liverpool win as value, even at [1.42].

Correct score

The most common score in Liverpool's away games this season has been the 1-0 win (3/18), with the 3-1 win (2/9) the only score to occur more than once at bottom-half sides this season. Over the longer term, the 2-0 and 3-1 wins (5/23 and 4/23, respectively) account for nearly 40% of the Reds' results at bottom-six teams over the past four seasons.

No score has cropped up more than twice at the Hawthorns this season, although six of their other seven games (2/3 at home) against the Big Four this season have been lost to nil, with the other game a 3-1 defeat. This coincides somewhat with Liverpool's figures and covering the 0-2 ([8.0]) and 1-3 ([13.0]) scores may be good long-odds options.

HT/FT

10 of West Brom's last 11 defeats have been L/Ls, as have six of their seven games against the Big Four and six of their eight losses at home this season. Only five of Liverpool's first 16 wins this season saw them take a lead in to the interval but six of their last seven wins have been W/Ws, as have six of their last nine on the road and just under half (11/23) of their games at bottom-six teams over the past four seasons. Liverpool/Liverpool ([2.08]) looks the way to go.

West Brom clean sheet

West Brom have conceded at least two in each of their other five games hosting the top six this season and have managed just four clean sheets in their 18 home games this season (three against the bottom-five away scorers this term). Since their 2-0 defeat at the Riverside, Liverpool have scored 29 goals in nine league games, netting at least three in each of their last five and seven of their last eight. The home clean sheet is available at [8.8] and even at that big price isn't to be recommended.

Liverpool clean sheet

Liverpool have conceded one goal in their last seven games against non-Big Four teams and have managed only one clean sheet in their last seven away to bottom-half sides. West Brom have failed to score in only four games at home this season, although that does include two of their three against the Big Four. If anything, the value may be in 'No' at [1.79] but there is sufficient doubt that this market is probably best avoided.