Premier League Betting: Stats show just how dangerous Everton and Portsmouth are when they score first

Stats / Andrew Atherley / 19 November 2008 / Leave a comment

We all know that the Big Four rarely lose when they go ahead but Andrew Atherley finds other Premiership teams that have an equally strong record when scoring first. Take note as they are worth backing in-running when opening the scoring.

When one of the big four teams scores first in a Premier League match, it is long odds-on that they will go on to take three points - last season, collectively, they were around a [1.18] chance to wrap up a win from that position in all games against teams from outside the Big Four.

There is no edge for the in-running punter from such information, but there might be an advantage from knowing which other Premier League teams have win percentages that can match and sometimes better the big four's record when scoring first.

From the big four, it is reasonable to expect around an 80% win percentage in games when they open the scoring. Since the start of last season, Chelsea and Manchester United are just above that level and Liverpool and Arsenal just below, which reflects the pecking order among the big four.

Yet over that period, there is one Premier League that has outstripped the big four. That team is Portsmouth, who have won 17 out of 18 when scoring first since the start of last season - a 94% win percentage.

In the context of the recent managerial change at Fratton Park, it is notable that Portsmouth's win percentage when scoring first has been high (83%) ever since Tony Adams was appointed assistant to Harry Redknapp in June 2006, before stepping into the hotseat last month.

That lends credence to the view that Portsmouth's improved defence over the past two seasons owed much to Adams' influence and, if that is the case, then Pompey could remain one of the best teams at keeping hold of a lead after opening the scoring, unless they are weakened by the departure of key defenders in the January transfer window.

For the best value, in-running punters should be looking to back Portsmouth if they open the scoring in the first half - their record from that position since the start of 2006/07 is won 22, drawn three, lost two. That's an 81% win rate, equating to odds of around [1.22].

Everton have similar figures. In the same period (since the start of the 2006/07 season) the Toffees have a 71% win percentage when scoring first, which is not particularly impressive, but the figures become more eyecatching with the exclusion of the occasions when they have had the temerity to score first against a big four team.

As in their 3-1 defeat at Arsenal this season, Everton are usually overhauled or at least pegged back by the big four, but the rest of the Premier League have great difficulty getting anything if Everton score first. From that position against teams outside the big four, Everton have won 35 out of 43 since the start of 2006/07, an 81% win rate with no defeats. When they have opened the scoring in the first half in those games, Everton have won 20 out of 24 (83% win). That equates to odds of [1.20], which in-running punters should expect to beat.

Some lower-placed teams also build strong records when scoring first, and a notable statistic this season is the W11-D2-L0 record of the three promoted teams when they open the scoring. The two draws belong to Hull, so Stoke and West Brom both have 100% records (only Aston Villa can better that this season, with five wins out of five when scoring first).

Stoke's strength is at home, where they have won four out of four this season when scoring first (three times when the opener has come in the first half) and last season their home record when scoring first was W9-D1-L1 (all after scoring in the first half). On that evidence, they are a team to have on side if they score in the first half at home.

West Brom have scored first only three times this season, but each time they have won (accounting for nine of their 11 points). They could have scope for improvement if they can score the opener on a more regular basis, though their open defence might still make them vulnerable.

Hull are interesting, even though they have drawn twice at home this season after opening the scoring (the 2-2s against Everton and Manchester City). Since Phil Brown took charge in December 2006, the Tigers have won 33 out of 43 (77%) when scoring first in a league match and, while most of those games were in the Championship, they have won four out of six from that position since joining the Premier League.