Stats / Bettorlogic / 13 March 2009 / Leave a comment

As the race for fourth place continues, Aston Villa seem to have gone off the boil of late. Good thing then that they're hosting a side with one of the worst away records in the division. Number-crunchers supreme bettorlogic talk us through it. Best bet: Back Villa clean sheet @ [1.53].

Match Odds

Villa have started to wobble as the race for fourth place enters the closing stretch, having taken just one point from their last three games -- and that after leading 2-0 against Stoke with three minutes to go at home.

Indeed, Villa's home form has prevented them from opening up a bigger gap over Arsenal with just two wins (W2-D5-L2) in their last nine in Birmingham and recording more home victories than only four other sides this season (Hull, Blackburn, Newcastle and Middlesbrough). However, their record against non-Big Four sides reads a much better W5-D4-L1 and W20-D12-L6 overall under Martin O'Neill -- including W16-D4-L3 against teams in the bottom half.

Spurs' recent run of results, by contrast, have eased their worries, with just one defeat in seven. While they have lost eight times on the road this season they seem to save their better away performances for stronger sides, going W2-D2-L2 at the current top half this season (W1-D4-L5 against top-half finishers last season).

On the one hand, Villa's record in similar games under O'Neill and Spurs' away record this season make an odds-against home win price look very appealing. On the other, Villa have struggled in front of the home fans this term, while Spurs have raised their game for the big away fixtures. A [2.1] Villa win is probably too good to pass up, although it would not be too surprising to see Spurs nick a point.

Correct score

The most common score for O'Neill's Villa at home to non-Big Four teams has been the 1-1 draw (8/40), with 2-0 the leading home win result (6/40). Those two results are also most common against the bottom half with 4/24 and 5/24, respectively. 1-1 (3/16) and the 2-1 loss (4/16) account for nearly half of Spurs' away results at top-half sides since the start of last season and they have suffered four 1-2s on the road already this season.

The 1-1 draw shows up quite strongly for both sides and may be a good alternative at [7.6] to backing the draw or as cover for the Villa win.

HT/FT

Tottenham haven't had a half-time lead on the road all season -- and only four since the start of last season -- with the half-time draw and consequently the D/L dominating (10/14 and 7/14 this season). Villa have also had a number of half-time draws at home (8/14) this term, although it is the D/D (5/14) which stands out for them. Over the whole of O'Neill's tenure, the W/W (14/40) is easily the leading HT/FT result for them at home to non-Big Four sides.

Aston Villa clean sheet

Villa's home defensive record this season is average, conceding just over a goal per game and keeping five clean sheets. Since 06/07 they have managed a clean sheet in 35% (14/40) of their home games against non-Big Four sides (9/24 against the bottom half). Spurs have failed to score three times on the road this season but only at Wigan of their six games against the current top half and in four of 16 including top-half finishers from last season. All of which suggests the Villa clean sheet is too short and 'No' represents the value at [1.53].

Tottenham clean sheet

Spurs have managed one clean sheet on the road all season -- the joint-worst record in the league. At top-half finishers (and this season's top half) they have kept just four in the best part of four seasons (34 games).

Villa's attack at home has been very erratic, netting two or more in half of their last 20 but failing to score at all in eight of the other 10. Still, given the visitors leaky backline there can be little appeal, even at [4.3].