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Sweden have lost only 6/36 competitive games outside Sweden since Lars Lagerback was promoted to joint-coach and later head coach, and at HT they have trailed in 8/36 (15 HT draws, 12 HT leads). They have lost just 1/14 on neutral territory since 2000, and their HT record in those games is W1-D8-L5. Under Lagerback, however, their HT record against top-10 teams is W0-D2-L6.

Spain are also difficult to beat outside their homeland, with just four defeats in 30 competitive games since 2002, and their HT record is W13-D12-L5, though they have been level at HT in both games against top-10 opposition. Their HT record on neutral territory in that period is W6-D3-L2. Under Luis Aragones, they are W7-D7-L3 in competitive games outside Spain.

Sweden rarely lead at HT on neutral territory or against high-ranked opposition, which points towards a Spain lead or a HT draw. The Spain lead [2.36] might just have the edge, but this is difficult to call. Getting to HT at least on level terms is important for Sweden, who have lost only 2/28 from that position in competitive games outside Sweden under Lars Lagerback. Overall the HT result has matched the FT result in two-thirds of those games, with 12 W-W (never failing to win when leading at HT), eight D-D and four L-L. Their opening win over Greece was only their third D-W from eight HT draws in games on neutral territory, though they have not lost from that position, with five D-D.

Spain's most common HT/FT outcome in competitive games outside Spain since 2002 is W-W (11/30), followed by D-D (six). They have lost only 3/25 when at least on level terms at HT.

Both teams show plenty of resilience in the second half, so the HT result could be replicated at FT. That points to D-D [5.8] and the Spain W-W [2.74] though the latter looks plenty short enough. Sweden have kept a clean sheet in half of their 36 competitive games outside Sweden under Lars Lagerback but only one in eight games against top-10 teams.

Spain have scored in 24/30 competitive games outside Spain since 2002, including in 14/17 under Luis Aragones. They have scored in 14/17 at major tournaments since 2000.

The figures point to a Spain goal, though that is reflected in the odds on Sweden not to keep a clean sheet [1.27]. Spain have kept a clean sheet in half of their 30 competitive games outside Spain since 2002, with 8/17 under Luis Aragones. They have shut out the opposition in just 4/17 at major tournaments since 2000.

Sweden have scored in 28/36 competitive games outside Sweden under Lars Lagerback, including in 5/8 against top-10 teams.

There is not much between the two options in the market, but Spain's low number of clean sheets at major tournaments and Sweden's good scoring record indicates that Spain not to keep a clean sheet [1.94] should be a clearer favourite. SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.

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