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Spain are W2-D6-L4 in knockout ties at major tournaments since 1984 (incidentally, their FT record is also W2-D6-L4). In competitive games outside Spain under Luis Aragones, their HT record is W7-D8-L3, and at major tournaments since 1998 their HT record is a similar W8-D10-L3.

Italy have trailed at HT in only 3/28 at major finals since the 1998 World Cup (W12-D13-L3) and the draw rate is high against teams ranked in the top 10 (W3-D6-L1). In 21 knockout ties at major finals since 1980, they are W9-D10-L2 at HT. Italy have trailed at HT only five times out of 42 in all competitive games outside Italy since 2000 (W22-D15-L5).

Both teams rarely trail at HT, which points to the HT draw [2.08], though it is no more than fairly priced. In competitive games outside Spain under Luis Aragones, the most common HT/FT result for Spain has been W-W (7/18), followed by D-D (4). W-W (6/21) is also their most common outcome at major tournaments since 1998.

A first-half lead is important for Italy, who are W2-D3-L2 under Roberto Donadoni when not ahead at the break. In 28 games at major finals since the 1998 World Cup, they have turned 10/12 HT leads into FT wins, with no defeats. When they have been level at HT, 9/13 have been D-D, with just one defeat. The FT result has matched the HT result in 19/28 of those tournament games (and in 14/21 knockout ties at major finals since 1980, with seven W-W, six D-D and one L-L).

Both teams have good W-W figures, but the prospect of a tight game and a HT draw points to the best value being the D-D [4.9]. Spain have kept a clean sheet in 8/18 games outside Spain under Luis Aragones (3/8 against teams ranked in the top 30) and their number of clean sheets is low (5/21) at major tournaments since 1998. They have kept a clean sheet in just 3/12 knockout ties at major tournaments since 1984.

Italy have scored in 23/28 of their games at major finals since the 1998 World Cup. Overall, Italy have scored in 35/42 competitive games outside Italy since 2000. They have scored in 15/21 knockout ties at major finals since 1980.

Spain's number of clean sheets is on the low side and Italy's good scoring record indicates that the Italians are likely to score, though in a tight-looking game Spain not to keep a clean sheet [1.48] looks short. Italy have kept a clean sheet in half (14/28) of their games at major finals since the 1998 World Cup, though overall their percentage of clean sheets is below 50% (18/42) in all competitive games outside Italy since 2000. They have kept a clean sheet in 11/21 knockout ties at major finals since 1980.

Spain have scored in 15/18 games outside Spain under Luis Aragones, with only one failure to score in their last 15. They have scored in 17/21 at major tournaments since 1998 and in 9/12 knockout ties at major tournaments since 1984.

Spain's good scoring record points to a goal for Aragones' team, though Italy's clean-sheet percentage indicates some value in the Italy clean sheet [3.2]. SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.