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Overall, in games outside Poland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, the Poles have trailed at HT in just 4/21 (W8-D9-L4). Against teams ranked in the top 20, however, they have been W1-D2-L2 at HT. Under Leo Beenhakker, their HT record outside Poland is W4-D3-L2, while at major tournaments since the turn of the millennium, they have been W2-D2-L4 at HT.

Croatia have been level at HT in half of their tournament games since 1996 (W5-D11-L6) but have led in both games at this tournament (before that, their last HT lead at a major tournament was in the third-place playoff at the 1998 World Cup). In competitive games outside Croatia since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, their HT record is W9-D9-L6 (W7-D8-L3 against teams ranked outside the top 20).

Both teams have solid first-half records, pointing towards a HT draw [2.2], though Croatia's figures are equally strong for a HT win [3.8]. In competitive games outside Poland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, Poland have a strong W10-D4-L3 FT record when not trailing at HT (the most common outcomes in those games being W-W and D-W, both five apiece). Under Leo Beenhakker, their most common outcome in games outside Poland has been W-D (3/9). At major tournaments since the turn of the millennium, Poland's most common outcome has been L-L (4/8).

In competitive games outside their homeland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, Croatia's most common outcome has been W-W (8/24), including in both games at this tournament, followed by D-D (five).

If it is a HT draw, Poland's strong second-half performance when not losing at HT indicates that they are capable of taking something, and they have a reasonable record of D-W [6.0]. Croatia's strongest figures are for W-W [5.7], backed up by Poland's L-L in 4/8 at major tournaments. Poland have kept a clean sheet in only one-third (7/21) of their competitive games outside Poland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, with only one in their last seven games and none at all in five games against teams ranked in the top 20. They have conceded in all eight games at major tournaments since the turn of the millennium.

In competitive games outside their homeland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, Croatia have scored in 15/24, including 6/8 under Slaven Bilic. Against teams ranked outside the top 20, they have scored in 12/18.

Poland are likely to concede but the odds on them not to keep a clean sheet [1.38] are a little short. It is worth noting that Croatia have won eight out of eight when scoring in competitive games under Bilic. In competitive games outside Croatia since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, Croatia have kept a clean sheet in 11/24, including 4/8 under Slaven Bilic. Against teams ranked outside the top 20, they have kept a clean sheet in 10/18.

Poland have scored in 15/21 competitive games outside their homeland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying but have failed to score in 3/5 against teams ranked in the top 20. Under Leo Beenhakker, they have scored in 6/9 outside Poland.

Mixed signals here, though any value is with Croatia to keep a clean sheet [3.85], with the odds clearly influenced by Poland's need to go for the win. SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.