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At major tournaments since the 1998 World Cup, the Netherlands' record at HT is W10-D7-L5, with all the draws and the last three HT deficits coming when they failed to score in the first half (W10-D2-L0 at HT when scoring in the first half). In competitive games outside their homeland under Marco Van Basten, the Netherlands are W8-D7-L2 at HT (W8-D1-L0 when scoring in the first half).

It is worth noting that in major tournaments since WWII, teams (excluding those at home) coming off a win by two or more goals against a top-10 ranked team are W5-D7-L15 if their next match is also against a top-10 side. Only two of those 27 teams had a HT lead (W2-D15-L10 at HT), which might indicate a hangover effect from their previous big win.

France have kept a first-half clean sheet in 26 of their 30 competitive games under Raymond Domenech and have never trailed at HT (W12-D18-L0). In fact, France have not been behind at HT in any of their last 33 competitive games (since playing Croatia in Euro 2004). Against top-10 teams since 1996, their HT record is W7-D8-L1, with draws in five of their last eight.

A HT draw [2.06] is the most likely outcome, given France's strong defensive record in the first half. The Netherlands' tournament record when failing to score in the first half indicates that there could be some value in a France HT lead [3.95], though against that is the fact that they have tightened up under Marco Van Basten. In competitive games outside their homeland under Marco Van Basten, the Netherlands' most common outcome has been W-W (8/17) and they have turned all eight HT leads into FT wins. They have lost only two out of seven when level at HT, with three D-W and two D-D. At major tournaments since the 1998 World Cup, they have had 8/22 W-W (W8-D1-L1 at FT after leading at HT).

France's HT/FT outcomes under Raymond Domenech fall into three main categories, dictated by their unbeatable record in the first half. Of their 12 HT leads in 30 competitive games under Domenech, 10 have been converted into FT wins, making W-W their most common outcome, while the 18 HT draws have divided into nine D-D, seven D-W and just two D-L.

Both teams have low numbers of D-L, which points to a D-D [4.8] or a France W-W [5.6] as the most likely outcomes based on France's first-half resilience. At major tournaments since the 1998 World Cup, the Netherlands have kept a clean sheet in 10/22, though their clean sheet against Italy was only their third in 11 games against a team ranked in the top 10. Under Van Basten, however, they have kept a clean sheet in three of their four games against teams ranked in the top 10.

France have scored in 22 of their 30 competitive games under Raymond Domenech, including five out of six against teams ranked in the top 10. They have scored in 9/10 against top-10 teams at major tournaments since 1998.

France's scoring record is good, which points more towards the Netherlands not to keep a clean sheet [1.53], though on limited evidence the Dutch under Van Basten are good at shutting out top-10 teams, which makes this difficult to call. France have kept a clean sheet in 21/30 competitive games under Raymond Domenech, including three out of six against teams ranked in the top 10. At major tournaments since the 1998 World Cup, they have kept a clean sheet in 4/10 against top-10 teams.

The Netherlands have scored in 8/11 against top-10 teams at major tournaments since the 1998 World Cup, and in 14/17 of their competitive games outside Holland under Marco Van Basten.

The figures indicate that France are more likely than not to concede, though their record at keeping a first-half clean sheet is impressive and a France FT clean sheet [2.92] could be overpriced based on their figures alone. SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.