Betfair Official Blog

In competitive games outside Italy since 2000, Italy have trailed at HT only five times out of 40 (the last two HT deficits were against teams ranked in the top 10) and against teams ranked in the top 20 their HT record is W6-D7-L3. At major tournaments since 2000, Italy's HT record is W9-D9-L3 (W6-D4-L3 in group games).

In 30 competitive games under Victor Piturca, Romania have trailed at HT only three times (W16-D11-L3) and their HT record outside Romania is W5-D8-L2. Back to and including Euro 96, Romania have had one HT lead in 12 finals matches (W1-D5-L6).

With both teams showing first-half resilience, the pointers are towards a HT draw [2.24]. In competitive games outside Italy since 2000, the most common outcome for Italy has been W-W (17/40), though against top-20 teams 6/16 have been D-D with 5/16 W-W (the FT result has been the same as the HT result in eight of Italy's last nine games against top-20 teams). The same outcomes are predominant in their record at major tournaments since 2000, with 7/21 W-W and 6/21 D-D.

Of Romania's 15 competitive games outside their homeland under Victor Piturca, two-thirds have been W-W or D-W (five of each). Overall, half of Romania's 30 competitive games under Piturca have been W-W.

If the teams are level at HT, Italy's recent record of the HT result matching the FT result will be a worry for their supporters, while Romania's respectable record at turning HT draws into FT wins also raises concern. This is tricky to call, but the indicators for a HT draw point towards D-D [5.6]. Italy have kept a clean sheet in fewer than half (17/40) of their competitive games outside Italy since 2000, with just 6/16 against top-20 teams. Their percentage of clean sheets is slightly higher in major tournaments since 2000 (10/21, 48%), though they have had only 5/13 against top-20 teams. Romania have scored in 24/30 competitive games overall under Victor Piturca, but they have failed to score in 4/6 against teams ranked in the top 10, including in all three games outside Romania. In major tournaments since 1994, they have scored in 11/17. Romania's poor scoring record against top-10 teams, albeit from a small sample, points towards an Italy clean sheet [1.95], though Italy's own figures do not indicate value at odds-on. In major tournaments since 1994, Romania have recorded just three clean sheets in 17 games and against top 10 opposition since the 1994 World Cup, they have had only four clean sheets in 16 games, though all four were in their last four games in that category. Overall, Romania have kept a clean sheet in 8/15 competitive games outside their homeland under Victor Piturca. Italy have scored in 33/40 competitive games outside Italy since 2000, including 27/31 against teams ranked outside the top 10. Their shutout against the Netherlands in their opening group game was only their fourth in 21 tournament games since 2000 (all four blanks have been against top-12 teams). Italy's figures indicate that a shutout is unlikely, which is reflected in the short odds on Romania not to keep a clean sheet [1.28], though Romania's recent defensive record against top-10 teams has been good. SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.