Greece v Sweden- Match odds, Correct score, first goal odds, over/under 1.5 goals
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The defending champions meet a Sweden side invigorated by the return of a legend
Half-Time
The
HT draw, as well as the
FT draw, is a big runner in the opening group games, when teams are anxious to avoid defeat and games are usually very tight (2.0 average goals per game in
European Championships since the current format was adopted in 1980).
At the seven Euro tournaments since 1980, 25/40 (63%) of the opening games have had HT draws, yet the HT draw has been available at evens or better in all eight opening group games this year, including this match [2.0]. Of those 25 HT draws, 19 were 0-0, five 1-1 and one 2-2, and this year's first two games were both 0-0 at HT.
Those stats are backed up by the tournament records of these teams.
Greece have been drawing at HT in 12/24 competitive games outside Greece under
Otto Rehhagel, and at
Euro 2004 they also had a 50% HT draw rate, going in level at the break three times out of six.
At their four major tournaments with
Lars Lagerback as part of the coaching team, either alone or in partnership,
Sweden have been draw specialists, drawing 9/15 overall with 7/15 HT draws. Against teams ranked outside the top 10, they have been level at HT five times out of eight.
At the three European Championships since the expansion to 16 teams, meetings between two teams ranked 11-20 have produced a HT draw in 5/9.
The figures point towards a HT draw [2.0] and, having been odds-on before the start of the tournament, it is surprising that the odds lengthened after the opening two games had produced
HT 0-0s.
HT/FT
With the propensity of draws in opening group games, it is not surprising that the most common HT/FT outcome is
D-D, which accounts for 12/40 (30%) of opening-game results since 1980. The odds for D-D [5.2] are on the shorter side for this match but on the overall figures that looks too big.
In 12/24 competitive games outside Greece under Otto Rehhagel, the most common HT/FT result for Greece has been D-W (7/24), followed by W-W (6) and D-D (4).
Sweden's most common HT/FT result at their last four major tournaments has been D-D (5/15), followed by L-D (4), which shows an ability to turn around deficits that is in contrast to Greece's good record at holding on to or building on their HT position.
At the three European Championships since the expansion to 16 teams, meetings between two teams ranked 11-20 have produced a HT/FT D-D in just 1/9. The most common result has been D-W (3/9) for the lower-ranked team (in this case, Greece).
Sweden's figures give most support to D-D but, while that looks a viable option, D-W for Greece [7.2] enters the equation too.
Greece clean sheet
Greece have kept a clean sheet in 11/24 competitive games outside Greece under Otto Rehhagel, including 3/6 at Euro 2006. They kept a clean sheet in 4/6 away qualifiers for this tournament, compared with 3/6 at home, which indicates a preference for the cagey type of game that served them so well at Euro 2004.
Sweden have scored in 11/15 at their last four major tournaments, including 6/8 when the opponent is ranked outside the top 10.
On the figures it is more likely that Greece will not keep a clean sheet [1.45] but the odds are on the skinny side.
Sweden clean sheet
Sweden have kept a clean sheet in 5/15 at their last four major tournaments, with a higher 4/8 when the opponent is ranked outside the top 10.
Greece have scored in 20/24 competitive games outside Greece under Otto Rehhagel, and they scored in 5/6 at Euro 2004 (the exception was the 0-0, after 90 minutes, in their semi-final against the Czech Republic). Two of the four failures to score, however, came in their four games against teams ranked 11-20.
Greece's good scoring record may surprise a few people and indicates that Sweden not to keep a clean sheet [1.52] is most likely, though again the odds are skinny.
About the SOS Rankings
SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.
The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.
For the full SOS Rankings,
click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.
All analysis, unless where noted, is based on competitive internationals since the start of the 1998 World Cup Finals.
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