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Back to and including Euro 96, Turkey have trailed at HT in only 2/16 at major tournaments (W5-D9-L2). They have been level at HT in half of their competitive games outside Turkey since the start of Euro 2000 qualifying and the HT draw rate is even higher against teams ranked above them (W2-D6-L2).

The Czech Republic under Karel Bruckner have trailed at HT in just 7/27 competitive games outside their homeland, with 10 HT wins and 10 HT draws. Against teams ranked in the top 20, they have trailed at HT in 4/10.

Both teams have strong first-half records and, with so much at stake, this could be cagey and a HT draw [2.08] looks most likely. Turkey's comeback win over Switzerland was their first at a major tournament since Euro 96 when they had not led at HT (their most common HT/FT outcome has been D-L, in 6/16). In competitive matches outside Turkey since the start of Euro 2000 qualifying, Turkey's most common outcomes have been W-W (12/42), D-D (nine) and D-W (eight). Of their six HT draws from 10 matches against teams ranked above them in that period, Turkey have yet to convert one into a FT win (four D-D, two D-L).

The Czech Republic's most common HT/FT result outside their homeland under Karel Bruckner is W-W (10/27), followed by D-W (six), and their defeat by Portugal was their first in 20 when not losing at HT (their other four defeats outside their homeland under Bruckner have been L-L).

Both teams bucked their overall trends last time, but a return to the norm would make a Turkey win unlikely unless they are ahead at HT. If the scores are level at HT, the most likely outcomes are D-D [4.8] or a Czech D-W [6.2]. In competitive matches outside Turkey since the start of Euro 2000 qualifying, Turkey have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games (18/42) but they have conceded in 8/11 against teams ranked above them and have not kept a clean sheet in their last eight overall outside Turkey. They have kept a clean sheet in 5/16 at major tournaments since Euro 96.

The Czechs under Karel Bruckner have scored in 15/20 competitive games outside their homeland against teams ranked below them.

Turkey will find it difficult to stop the Czech Republic scoring, though the odds are short for Turkey not to keep a clean sheet [1.38]. The Czechs under Karel Bruckner have kept a clean sheet in 15/27 competitive games outside their homeland, including 13/20 against teams ranked below them.

Turkey have scored in 6/11 against a team ranked above them outside Turkey since the start of Euro 2000 qualifying. They have scored in half of the 16 games at major tournaments since Euro 96.

No clear signals here, though arguably a Czech Republic clean sheet [2.58] is a little overpriced. SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.