The Pay As You Lay Column: Stats virtually guarantee goals at Anfield

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 11 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

Arsenal haven't had trouble scoring goals this term, scoring in six out of seven of their away games so far this season.

"Liverpool are 12 points off the pace in seventh place and Arsenal are eight points adrift of leaders Chelsea, albeit with a game in hand. Liverpool’s dip in form, in particular, makes this a tough game to weigh up, but certainly on the stats we can expect an attacking and potentially high-scoring match."

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets. This week he's predicting goals at Anfield and home favs PSG and Werder to be held at home.

Lay under 2.5 goals at [1.97] in Liverpool v Arsenal

Liverpool v Arsenal stands alone as the sole Premier League fixture on Sunday, but the big TV clash does not carry the significance in terms of the title race that most people would have forecasted at the start of the season. Liverpool are 12 points off the pace in seventh place and Arsenal are eight points adrift of leaders Chelsea, albeit with a game in hand. Liverpool's dip in form, in particular, makes this a tough game to weigh up, but certainly on the stats we can expect an attacking and potentially high-scoring match.

This season Arsenal have had 11 out of 14 games with over 2.5 goals (79%) and Liverpool have had 10 out of 15 (67%), whilst it is also significant that Liverpool have scored in all seven home games and Arsenal in six of their seven away games. Both teams have scored in the last 10 Liverpool-Arsenal encounters, with the six at Anfield averaging an incredible 5.66 goals per game.

Lay Werder Bremen at [1.89] v Schalke

This clash of the teams lying second and third in the Bundesliga could play into the hands of Bayer Leverkusen, who lead the table by three points and know that one or both of their nearest challengers will drop points. Werder Bremen could be the team that loses vital ground, as they are far from certain to justify odds-on favouritism.

Their win rate at home this season is less than 50% (three wins out of seven), while Schalke have lost only one in seven on the road. Schalke have gained steady momentum under Felix Magath, who is trying to win a Bundesliga title with his third different club, and have lost only one of their last nine. Werder, meanwhile, have developed a worrying draw habit, with stalemates in four of their last five, including the last two at home all against lesser teams than Schalke.

Lay Paris Saint-Germain at [1.71] v St Etienne

Paris Saint-Germain are having another disappointing season, despite a bright start when they played four of the current top eight in their opening six fixtures and came away with three wins and a draw against Lyon. Their form has gone downhill since then, with just three wins in the last eight games, and for the most part they have been a low-scoring side, scoring one or none in eight of their last 10 games. St Etienne started poorly, losing four of their first five, but their five defeats since then have all been against teams in the top eight and in the last 10 games they have taken only one point fewer than PSG, so this looks a more closely balanced match than the odds indicate.