The Pay As You Lay Column: Goals to flow at the Stadium of Light

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 12 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Sunderland's defence will have to be at their best to stop Emmanuel Adebayor and Carlos Tevez

"Only the top three have scored more away goals than City's 22 and the only teams to stop them scoring on the road have been Tottenham, Everton and Birmingham - all better teams than Sunderland."

Can Sunderland's defenders contain Manchester City's attack? Should European big names be opposed at short odds? Andrew Atherley selects the best lay bets of the weekend.

Lay under 2.5 goals at [1.9] in Sunderland v Manchester City

Manchester City's much-vaunted problems on the road do not extend to a lack of goals, and that factor could help to push this match towards a high-scoring encounter, if not quite as high as City's 4-3 win in the reverse fixture in December.

Over 2.5 goals was exceeded in the opening 16 minutes on that occasion and there are reasons to believe that mark will be surpassed again, at least within the 90 minutes. Only the top three have scored more away goals than City's 22 and the only teams to stop them scoring on the road have been Tottenham, Everton and Birmingham - all better teams than Sunderland.

It's apparent too that City's goals tallies on the road have been on the rise - eight of their last 10 away to Premier League opposition have had over 2.5 goals. Sunderland have scored in 11 of their 14 home games, with a slight balance in favour of over 2.5 goals when they have scored, and their only blanks have been against three of the stronger away defences - Aston Villa, Fulham and Stoke, who all rank in the top eight for fewest goals conceded in the Premier League. With a good chance of both teams scoring, the goals could flow.

Lay Lazio at [1.94] v Bari

Lazio have been a team to lay at short odds all season, having won only five out of 27 matches in Serie A, and this is another chance to oppose them at short odds. Two of those five wins were against teams in the bottom three, which means Lazio have won only three out of 23 against teams above them in the table and only one out of 11 at home in that category. Bari are not the most reliable travellers, with only one win on the road, but they were good enough to draw at Inter, Milan and Palermo early in the season and they will go to Lazio with more confidence after last week's home win over Chievo. Bari are seven places above Lazio and this looks a tight match, which indicates Lazio are poor value at odds-on.

Lay Paris Saint-Germain at [1.84] v Sochaux

PSG are another of the big-name strugglers in the European big leagues and, with only one win in seven league games since the turn of the year, they are far from certain to justify being odds-on against Sochaux, who are a point and one place above them in the table. Three of PSG's six home wins were against teams below them in the table and a telling factor is that they haven't scored more than a single goal against any team above them since their 4-1 win at Sochaux in the reverse fixture in November. That result seemed out of character for both sides and Sochaux have lost only five out of 15 since then (three against teams in the top nine).