Premier League / Richard Walker / 25 September 2008 / Leave a comment

Richard Walker has found it too hard to see past an Arsenal victory so he's searched for a variety of ways to still make a profit on a home victory.

Your powers of prophecy won't be tested too hard here if you're about to second-guess my thoughts on who might win during a look-ahead to Arsenal playing host to Hull City.

Of course it's impossible to see past anything other than a Gunners' victory - and a comfortable one at that. Everyone has their five minutes of fame they say and, relatively speaking, mine came on this forum last term when I nailed just about every selection going for Arsenal's trip to the ill-fated Derby County. Lightning won't strike twice, but I remember placing perceived as being of paramount importance.

But if matches between the 'Big Four' and likely strugglers were always that simple, you'd find prohibitive odds every time. Trying to derive some perceived value from your selections is what matches like this are all about - and yes, the risk/reward equation gets somewhat skewed - especially when you're looking at outcomes to provide what you'd consider 'a decent return'.

The Match Odds are understandably predictable. It's [1.24] to back Arsenal, [6.4] The Draw and something like [24.0] if you think Phil Brown's Tigers can do the highly improbable (to say impossible would be rude).

I tend to migrate towards either the Half-Time result market or the Half-Time/Full-Time choices when lop-sided games like this arise. However Arsene Wenger's men are [1.58] to back in the former and Arsenal/Arsenal in the latter is around [1.66].

So how about Draw/Arsenal? Brown's quite a shrewd one and he's already shown he's prepared to have City line up and play in a variety of formations and styles to suit the situation. Well he'll know exactly what's coming here, so perhaps an ultra-defensive 4-5-1 or even 5-4-1 might yield parity at least until half-time. This scenario is [5.3] to back, so worth covering I feel.

One place you should be looking is the Correct Score market - and, in particular, the Any Unquoted odds to back. For even if the outcome above happens, there's nothing to stop the hosts running in at least four in 45 minutes. Backable at [4.3], Any Unquoted covers an Emirates goal glut and is my primary match selection.

The likes of Emmanuel Adebayor and Robin van Persie will be little more than around the [3.5] mark in the First Goalscorer selections - so why not consider someone like Cesc Fabregas at the likes of [9.0] when the market takes shape. A live Hull outsider, should you want one, would be Marlon King (City's likely penalty-taker) at roughly [15.0], should there be an upset.

Of course it could be one-nil to Arsenal, with a first-half goal from Adebayor. But where's the fun in that?