Premiership Betting: Tottenham v Liverpool - Special over/under 2.5 goals preview

Premier League / Ed Nicholson / 31 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Liverpool have conceded just two goals on the road this term whilst Spurs have scored six in their last two league matches alone. Add to the equation an expected defensive improvement under Redknapp and the possible return of Fernando Torres for Liverpool and the over/under 2,5 goals market becomes a tough one to call. Thank heavens for Ed Nicholson...

Harry Redknapp has undoubtedly had an effect on his Tottenham players since his arrival. Statistics prove that new managers do, at least initially, improve a team's results, but that improvement usually lasts a matter of weeks, not months.

Spurs beat a Bolton side last weekend that arguably they would have beaten whether it was Redknapp or Ramos at the helm. But, I believe that a Spurs side managed by Juande Ramos would have been defeated by Arsenal at the Emirates on Wednesday night - especially if going 4-2 down as happened.

The Lilywhites' previously unseen battling qualities certainly were inspired by somebody, and the overall performance and body language of these wearing white was a million miles away from what we had previously seen this year from a Spurs team. The whole game and result says a great deal about Harry's motivational capabilities.

As my regular reader will know, I am a great believer in momentum and motivation when it comes to analysing a football match. Spurs now have both, and although it may not be enough to beat Liverpool on Saturday, it may mean the game is a closer encounter than otherwise envisaged.

When Redknapp joined Spurs he said something telling that we should all remember. He said, "I don't care what you do in your life, if you're not confident you don't perform" Well said Harry!

I've been watching Spurs closely over the last few weeks. The team that played Arsenal on Wednesday night were a totally different set of players that had played at Udinese and Stoke. They looked confident. The proof is obviously in the results, but another telling sign to me is that two of Spurs four goals came from Darren Bent and Aaron Lennon - both players have suffered with confidence issues in the last few months and both netted by reacting quicker than Arsenal defenders.

But how will Spurs fare against a Liverpool side that can do no wrong? At time of writing Spurs are [[3.65] while Liverpool are [2.20]. To put that in some sort of context, last year Liverpool were [2.80] (fixed odds price). In fact, Liverpool haven't been a short as [2.20] since 2001 when they were odds on (fixed odds).

Liverpool have a relatively good record against Spurs at White Hart Lane. The Reds won 0-2 last season and before that the scores were 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 2-1, 2-3, 1-0, 2-1, 1-0, 2-1.

This season Liverpool have, in general, played very neat, tight games on the road. - they have only conceded two goals in five games. But it's the way they play these games which is of interest to me. They only managed three SOTs at Stamford Bridge, seven against Man City (when they scored three), and six against Everton (when they scored two). Spurs meanwhile have defended poorly and have not looked confident in front of goal. At home they have scored just four goals.

Liverpool drew too many games last season, and it is their ability to translate those one pointers into three pointers that may ultimately decide whether they can stay at the top of the Premiership until May. It may be that a point is all they get on Saturday.

Fernando Torres scored in this fixture last season and he may well return at the weekend. Liverpool have proved they can cope admirably without one of the best strikers in the world, and in Robbie Keane they have a player who will be extremely motivated, playing against the side he captained for many years. It may well be that Rafa decides to play with just one up front and that one could be Keane, resting Torres for a date with destiny next Tuesday against his old club, Atletico Madrid.

Harry Redknapp will be pleased with the response of his players to his appointment, but he will also be concerned about the team's defensive frailties. Gomez looks clumsy and hopeless in goal, while his defenders are simply not a tight enough unit. And I feel this is the key. Despite it being a home game I feel that Harry would take a draw against the league leaders. And I feel that Liverpool will be just as keen to defend a goal lead and keep their momentum going - especially as they face Atletico Madrid next Tuesday.

Recent head to heads statistics provide evidence to those looking to back a low scoring contest as the last four games between these two at White Hart Lane have all been under 2.5 goal affairs.

Recommendation

Recently Spurs home games have been characterised by goals. Last season there were more goals at White Hart Lane than any other Premiership stadium. A shaky defence, lack of confidence and poor defending have all contributed to Spurs conceding no less than 16 goals this season. They have the worst goal difference in the league and now Liverpool, the Premiership leaders come to play. But Harry's Portsmouth side played it safe at Fratton Park and I although his first job would have been to instil confidence into the side, the second could well be to stop them leaking goals.

In normal circumstances (without the Redknapp effect) a play on the overs would be a fair call, and I feel this will indeed become a popular choice come 5.30pm on Saturday afternoon. But for me, this has the hallmarks of a low scoring affair. At time of writing the under 2.5 goal option is available at [1.92], and although I expect you to get even better value eventually, for the purpose of this column I'll take that price.

2pts Under 2.5 goals Spurs v Liverpool @ 1.92