Premiership Betting: O'Neill is no Tinkerman and Villa are better off for it

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 29 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Ralph Ellis needs no convincing that Aston Villa boss Martin O'Neill knows exactly what he's doing and that includes picking the same eleven week in week out. But how successful has squad rotation been at other Premiership clubs?

Now nobody is suggesting Martin O'Neill isn't up to date with all that new fangled thinking. But he is in tune with some of the game's timeless principles and that could be one of the reasons why his Aston Villa team are sat in third place in the Premier League this morning.

Saturday's 2-1 win over Sunderland was the sixth time in six League games this year that O'Neill has picked exactly the same starting eleven. He's even spent getting on for 20 million quid on James Milner and Carlos Cuellar since that run started and both of them are still waiting to start their first Premier game for him. It's also a fair bet that you can name right now the team which will be on duty against Chelsea this coming Sunday when O'Neill's improving young team take the next big test of how far they can go.

The genial Irishman might pretend it's happened more by luck than judgement. "I didn't know I'd done that until somebody pointed it out on Friday and I'm only the manager," he claimed after Ashley Young and John Carew had got the goals that brought the latest three points. The truth is he knows exactly what he's doing, and more important so do his players. The ones in the team understand that if they keep performing they will stay there, and the ones on the bench know they can't expect anything different while the team are winning so they don't kick up a fuss about having to wait.

Maybe Villa's boss is setting a trend because other clubs are also moving to more consistent selection policies - including Chelsea where Claudio Ranieri once tried to make a merit out of calling himself 'The Tinkerman'. Luiz Felipe Scolari has juggled some of his more forward players, but the injury to Ricardo Carvalho which brought Alex into the team that won at Stoke has been his only change in defence so far. There's no doubt that helped them stand up to the 'high players' as Scolari described the clutch of six-footers in Tony Pulis's team - and it's why Chelsea remain as tight as [1.46] to beat Villa on Sunday, even though O'Neill's side took four points off them last year.

Up at Anfield even Rafa Benitez, the Liverpool manager whose team normally rotates faster than a Catherine wheel, seems to be learning his lesson. He's also settled on a consistent back four - but just as important keeps picking Robbie Keane and Fernando Torres as his forward line for every League game. The former Spurs man has yet to score a goal, but the signs of a genuine partnership are beginning to form. Torres got both the goals that won the Merseyside derby and significantly both of them came on the end of moves involving Keane. It always looked as if it should be a dream pairing, of course - and if it goes on working then Torres could easily justify his current price of [5.7] favourite to be the Premier League's top scorer.

Portsmouth's Jermain Defoe slotted a calm penalty against Spurs yesterday to place himself among the clutch of strikers on four League goals so far - one behind Wigan's Zaki who despite that is as long as [30.0] to still be top of the charts come next May. Defoe is another who will benefit from consistency of selection because Harry Redknapp won't spend too long thinking through his options every week before writing down the name of the pint sized striker alongside his giant companion Peter Crouch. Defoe is [11.5] to be top scorer, but a much safer bet at [3.15] to be the top English goalgetter as his partnership with Crouch develops and he benefits from the sort of regular run in the team that he never got at White Hart Lane. (Keep an eye, incidentally, on John Carew who is a massive [55.0] to be top scorer. His effort against Sunderland was his eighth in his last 11 League games).

As if to prove that changing teams around doesn't always help, down at the bottom of the table Juande Ramos has used 23 players for Spurs so far and there's little sign of any of them making a difference. If they thought Dimitar Berbatov wasn't the busiest of players then the lack of work rate in those left behind is alarming. Next up for them on Sunday are Hull who beat Arsenal at the weekend and will fancy their chances of another win in North London and are [5.1] to get it.

There's always one exception to the rule though. Sir Alex Ferguson dropped Wayne Rooney to the bench on Saturday and guess who came on late to clinch the win over Bolton? United are, incredibly, still in the bottom half of the table at the moment but won't stay that way. Next up for Fergie is a date against Paul Ince, who also changed things around successfully when he went with only one up front to get three points for Blackburn at Newcastle. Dare he do the same at home? What's that old rule again about never changing a winning team?