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Premiership

Premiership Betting: Goalscoring free-for-all for the Gunners at Derby

Richard Walker talks us through Derby County's unwanted Premiership records and with Arsenal visting tonight, expects to see Roy Carroll picking the ball out of his own net a fair few times...

Poor old Paul Jewell, eh? Apart from a cash-laden contract (and that's a big apart from right there, granted), what on earth persuaded him to be the man conducting the band on the deck of the Derby Titanic as it ignominiously sinks into the depths of Championship football? It's his first relegation as a manager and it's going to be remembered.

Get this: never mind the rest of the season, his record as Rams' boss is played 21, won zero, drawn five and lost 16. Would that he were alive, I'd be on the phone to Roy Castle with that one - dedication indeed, if only to being rubbish.

You've got to give the man credit...he's still there! His assistant had seen enough by last week, however, the wily old dog Stan Ternent swimming clear of the sinking ship to take over the rudder at becalmed Huddersfield Town in League One.

Player wise, both sides have their share of absentees. Creative County starlet Giles Barnes is injured, along with defenders Marc Edworthy and Claude Davis. Alex Hleb starts a three-game ban for Arsenal, while Mathieu Flamini, Bacary Sagna and Abou Diaby are all crocked. Arsene Wenger's said he's likely to field his third-choice keeper - poor lad, he might well catch a chill.
Derby have three more goes left to record just their second win of the season. This one, away to Blackburn and home to Reading.

That's surely the starkest of all the remarkable facts about the hosts this year...they've won just once. Yep, one solitary league win all season; and that coming back in September, 1-0 at home to the then listless Newcastle United. Sunderland hold the record for the crappiest Premiership performance; 15 points two seasons back. I can't see how Derby will pass that.

County are around a [13.5] chance to upset all rational thinking and beat the still smarting Gunners. The draw is [6.0] while the near-certainty of an away win is at [1.31] to back. My preference would be to get involved with Arsenal in the Half Time market, at roughly [1.67]. And you could lay Derby to all-comers but, good grief, at [14.5[ that's some liability - even against a miracle.

Better to look elsewhere for what is actually still an interesting betting heat. My 'good thing' for this game is Arsenal/Arsenal in the Half Time/Full Time list. The odds are around [1.83] and, even if the visitors do take a while to warm up, it surely won't be more than 45 minutes until Roy Carroll's picking out the first of the evening from what must be the most tested of goal netting this term. At around the [5.1] mark, I feel Draw/Arsenal represents enough of a price to warrant a small cover.

The Correct Score market has Any Unquoted in at [4.5] and I'm not surprised. The chance of Arsenal scoring four or more is high, in my opinion. This price often wanders out to fulsome double-figures, to give you an idea of the scale of the imbalance for this fixture. Of the quoted scores, 3-0 - at about [9.2] - is the only one I can point to recommending and it's mentioned with the caveat of the Gunners getting ahead then just playing keep-ball.

In the Overs/Unders list I feel there's some cash to be exchanged in your direction. Back Over 2.5 goals at [1.74] for a safety net - but go further and back either Over 3.5 goals, a [2.82] chance, or Over 4.5 goals which would pay about [5.1]. Let's not forget this is the County side who shipped six when last at home; okay it was to free-scoring Villa but the Gunners are more clinical and might still harbour faint hopes of second if one of the top two fall apart.

And just for fun, bung a Hat-trick to be scored into the mix at [11.5] to back. Your pulse will then quicken slightly when someone like Emmanuel Adebayor pops home his second of the night.