Premiership Betting: Everton v Fulham: Special over/under 2.5 goals preview

Premier League / Ed Nicholson / 31 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Ed Nicholson talks us through the facts, stats and maths on the over/under 2.5 goals market as Everton, uncharacteristically poor at home this season, play hosts to Fulham.

Everton are not playing to type. Last season their home games were characterised by low-scoring contests. Only Portsmouth outside of the top four had a better home defensive record than David Moyes' side - the Toffees only conceded 17 goals in 19 home games.

This season Everton's home form has been appalling. If the Premiership table was based purely on home performances the Toffees would be propping up the division. They have yet to win in front of their own fans this season and have conceded eleven goals, the highest of any home side in the league.

Fulham are traditionally poor away from home. Last season they managed just three wins and conceded 29 goals, scoring just 16 times in the process. And already after four away games this term they are searching for their first away victory having lost three and drawn once. If the Premiership table was based purely on away results Fulham would be bottom.

But this game, surprisingly, has a history of producing high scoring contests. Five of the last seven Goodison encounters have been over 2.5 goal affairs, and both sides are scoring goals at present.

Fulham won 2-0 during the week and have scored in all but three games this season, while Everton have scored in all but two of their matches. Interestingly, Everton have been involved in plenty of high scoring matches this season both home and away. In total, seven of their ten games have been over 2.5 goal affairs, while Fulham have been involved in just three over 2.5 goal affairs.

Last season this fixture finished 3-0 on 8th December and was sandwiched in between two further Fulham losses - one to Man Utd and one to Newcastle. Everton, on the other hand were in a rich vein of form - their December saw a number of successes both home and away and in Europe, losing just once.

Recommendation

All 14 encounters between these sides have been won by the side playing at home. The most interesting statistic to me is that games involving Fulham this term have yielded the fewest goals in the Premiership (16) - while games involving Everton have yielded the highest number of goals (33).

Both sides have players capable of scoring goals and their goal getters are on form. The head-to-head records suggest that we will see a high scoring game at Goodison this Saturday afternoon and I agree. At the prices, I feel it is worth risking 1pt on the over 2.5 goal option at [2.14].

1pt Over 2.5 goals Everton v Fulham @ [2.14]