Premier League Transfers: As Brum stregthen their squad, it's Wigan who might get the relegation Blues

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 29 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ralph Ellis gives us the lowdown on the most recent Premier League moves as Birmingham take the credit card out whilst Wigan seem happy to let their prize assets move on.

The orthodox wisdom says that the three clubs promoted from the Championship are certain to go back down every year. Listen to the professionals and the pundits and they'll all go on about the gulf in class, the difference in accumulated wealth and budgets, and the difficulty of persuading good players to come to a club that's already expecting a relegation fight.

The reality is different. In 14 seasons since the top two divisions were changed to their current format of three up and three down, there has only been one year when all three promoted clubs failed to survive. And that was back in 1998 when Bolton, Barnsley and Crystal Palace all slid back down. In contrast, in 2002 all three promoted clubs clung on to their new status when Fulham, Blackburn and Bolton all stayed up. And of course last year Stoke and Hull both defied all the pre-season odds.

The secret seems to be that some clubs are happy to take the money for getting in the top flight without trying too hard to stay there. Watford in 2007 are the most obvious recent example. Others are willing to back their manager by spending some of their £50million TV windfall on players that might keep them in the land of plenty. And when they have good managers who make inspired signings - like Stoke with Tony Pulis last season - it pays off.

So far this summer it's been Birmingham who have been the most aggressive of the new boys. And the signs from the weekend papers is that Alex McLeish is about to make another move to strengthen his squad.

He's been heavily linked with Rangers' shamed captain Barry Ferguson and could table a £1million bid this week. "He will take the ball all day long and I need somebody like that," McLeish is quoted as saying this morning.

The Blues' manager had to drag the club kicking and screaming back to the top flight last season with a board that at times not only failed to back him, but were downright destructive in some of their comments. Managing director Karren Brady compared him in public at one point to Luiz Felipe Scolari for having a team that added up to less than the sum of its parts.

But that appears to have changed since he clinched promotion on the final day of the season, with investment both off and on the pitch at St Andrew's. So far this summer he's brought in England Under 21 goalkeeper Joe Hart on loan from Manchester City, paid Cardiff £4million for Roger Johnson, and gone across the world to bring in two South American internationals in Giovanny Espinoza and Christian Benitez. Add to that the acquisition of Scott Dann from Coventry, plus the permanent signings of last year's temporary players Lee Bowyer and Stephen Carr, and there is the bones of a squad that could last the pace in the top flight. Blues are [2.06] to go down again, and that could well be worth laying - if only because they will be good enough to have some decent spells and there will be opportunities during the campaign to back them again at a bigger price.

For the record play-off winners Burnley are [1.66] favourites to go back down, while Hull are [2.08] not to repeat last year's survival act and the other new boys Wolves are [2.4].

With the transfer window officially opening on Wednesday, and most clubs back to pre-season training either this week or next, expect the number of completed deals to start rising. Manchester City will almost certainly have Carlos Tevez on board, and are working hard to follow that with the signing of Samuel Eto'o. Barcelona president Joan Laporta has talked at the weekend of the "stratospheric" deal that's been put in front of the Cameroon international reported at anywhere from £160,000 to £250,000 a week. City are now [1.65] for a top six finish with their growing army of top strikers, and have shortened to [2.88] to break into the Champions League places.

The player that Sir Alex Ferguson really wants, Karim Benzema from Lyon, has proved elusive so far. But at least Manchester United should make their first move of the summer when Antonio Valencia completes a £16million deal from Wigan in the next few days. I can't help feeling that will have more impact on the survival chances at the JJB Stadium than it will on United's prospects at the other end of the table. Going back to those figures about promoted clubs staying up, it follows that every year an established side will go down, just like Newcastle and Middlesbrough did last year. And having lost Steve Bruce as well as their top players, and with a new manager inexperienced at Premier League level, Wigan now look the stand-out bets to be this year's fall guys at [5.6].