Premier League Stats: Liverpool v Aston Villa

Premier League / Bettorlogic / 20 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

A team in form against a team out of form - surely there can only be one winner. Bettor Logic bring you the necessary stats to make the right picks. Best Bet: Back Liverpool clean sheet @ [1.98].

Match Odds

Just six weeks ago Aston Villa trailed league leaders Liverpool by three points and had an eight-point cushion over Arsenal in fifth. Since then, they have lost five of their seven games in all competitions and not won -- picking up a solitary point from four league games.

Back-to-back matches against the Big Four are unlikely to be what Martin O'Neill needs right now, especially considering Villa's record of six league wins against such teams in the last 10 years (W3-D8-L27 on the road). That has improved under the Ulsterman though, with five draws and a win from 10 trips since his arrival.

The Reds' comprehensive win at Old Trafford last weekend underlined their capabilities against the top sides, they have not lost to any of the teams currently in the top half this season (W7-D7-L0). The main reason they have relinquished top spot in the league has been their inability to turn draws into wins at Anfield, having shared the points in five of their last seven home games against non-Big Four sides. Still, overall under Benitez, they are W55-D20-L1 in such games including a W19-D10-L0 mark against top-half finishers and this season's top half.

That record would equate almost exactly to Liverpool's current [1.5] price so it is hard to see a great deal of value in the home win outright. Villa's record in these games suggests it is unlikely they will add to their league-best 10 away wins although the draw is probably a bit long at [4.4].

Correct score

The 1-1 draw (3/10) has been the most common score in Villa's away games at the Big Four under O'Neill, with the 2-2 (5/25) and 2-0 loss (4/25) most common against all top-half finishers in that time. Over the same period, the 0-0 (4/17) and 1-1 (3/17) have been Liverpool's most common home scores v top-half, non-Big Four sides -- including four of their five such games (two apiece) this season.

HT/FT

Liverpool have really struggled in the first half at home of late, they have led at the break in only two of their last 16 in the league with 13 level. It is no surprise to find the D/W (7/16) and D/D (6/16) dominating the double result market, and Draw/Liverpool ([4.5]) appears to offer significantly better value than the home win straight up.

All four of Villa's defeats at the Big Four under O'Neill have been L/Ls, which is also their most common result in that 10-game sample. Against all top-half sides over the same period, it is still the most prevalent outcome (7/25), followed by the D/D (5/25).

Liverpool clean sheet

Villa have scored in eight of their 10 away games against the Big Four since 06/07 however, in the last year, they have found the net only against Arsenal in their seven matches with the Big Four (home and away).

The Reds have kept clean sheets in seven of their last 10 home games as well as in 10 of 17 at home to the top half (excluding the Big Four) over the last three seasons, which makes their clean sheet price ([1.98]) look too long.

Aston Villa clean sheet

Liverpool have failed to score in only three of their last 25 home league games as well as in just four of 29 at home to top-half sides (excluding the Big Four) under Benitez. Villa's 2-0 win at the Emirates was the first time they had kept a clean sheet at one of the Big Four since a goalless draw at Anfield over nine years (and 30 matches) ago. It was also just one of five clean sheets in 25 games at top-half teams under O'Neill, so it is hard to see them keeping out a Reds' attack that just put four past Man Utd.